[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 22N88W TO 12N88W...MOVING W AT
10 KT. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER BELIZE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO ON MONDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. PRESENTLY CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 80W-89W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
19N34W TO 10N38W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 35W-39W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N51W TO 9N52W MOVING W AT 15 KT. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 49W-52W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N63W TO 10N64W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 63W-69W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO
9N30W TO 9N38W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 9N38W TO 9N46W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH OFF THE
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 16W-27W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 43W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS SURFACE RIDGING
FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AXIS ALONG 32N. 10-15 KT SE SURFACE WINDS
COVERS THE GULF N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER W LOUISIANA AND SE
TEXAS FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 93W-97W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 94W-
97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W.
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 23N84W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND W GULF W OF 87W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DOMINATING THE
WEATHER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION
ABOVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN PRODUCING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 24N71W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CENTER TO
JAMAICA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTIALLY DUE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW N OF THE ISLAND. ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION MOSTLY S OF THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N61W. THE TAIL END
OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N44W TO
31N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N27W.
OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 24N71W WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 62W-69W.
ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N36W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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