[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 311121
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N31W TO 15N33W...TO A
1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N34W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO
12N BETWEEN 41W AND 45W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N62W
14N62W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
10N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W.

A TROPICAL WAVE RUNS THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO
GUATEMALA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 15N17W...TO 12N30W TO 9N48W. NO ITCZ IS APPARENT AT THIS
MOMENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO
10N BETWEEN 12W AND 26W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN CENTRAL TEXAS. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
23N...IN GENERAL. ISOLATED MODERATE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
SITES...KOPM...KGVX...KVQT...KMDJ...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A.
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR
LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS AT THE NAS WHITING FIELD NEAR MILTON...AND IN CRESTVIEW...
IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE
BEING REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE 24 HOUR FORECAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG
91W WITH TO THE SOUTH OF 23N...WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 18N91W. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN
89W AND 91W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD...ILL-DEFINED...AND DISORGANIZED MIDDLE LEVEL AND UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.73 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...AND 0.11 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECT
EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET...TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN
CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W.

...HISPANIOLA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N60W TO A 24N70W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE
WEST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING
AROUND THE 24N70W CYCLONIC CENTER...COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 62W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 30N
BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 72W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 82W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED
IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA AND IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH
WILL CUT THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE
GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER
THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH...AND THEN
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...DURING THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT....THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA.
FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
LESS THAN 8 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 14N W OF 78W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET...FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 76W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N5W
MOROCCO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 31N17W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N25W TO 24N40W...TO A 22N54W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 17N60W. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A COLD
FRONT REACHES 32N48W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
32N48W TO 31N56W AND 31N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 45W AND 52W. ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND
70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N27W...TO 30N34W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N41W...TO 28N62W...BEYOND 30N80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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