[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271158
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N
72.0W...OR ABOUT 370 NM TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA AT 27/1200 UTC.
PRESENT MOVEMENT OF CRISTOBAL IS NORTHWARD AT 10 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 31N TO 33N
BETWEEN 70W AND 73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 28N TO
30N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 33N TO 36N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 36N64W 32N70W
25N73W 20N74W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 27/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WAS 0.11 IN BERMUDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE WIND AND SEAS THAT ARE RELATED TO HURRICANE CRISTOBAL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W SOUTH OF 23N
MOVING W AT 10-15KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W FROM 21N
SOUTHWARD MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. DRY SAHARAN AIR IS LOCATED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WAVE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 27W AND
34W...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 47W AND 58W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63/64W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 61W AND 68W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NORTH
TO 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. SOME OF THIS SOUTHERN CONVECTION MAY
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W...TO 8N20W 12N28W AND 12N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 12N34W TO 12N44W TO 13N52W TO 11N63W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG AND WITHIN 50 NM OF THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 11W AND 17W. SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 21W AND 27W. OTHER CONVECTION IS
RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS
THE ENTIRE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF 88W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
...NORTHWESTWARD...TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BASIN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 100 NM
OF THE COAST OF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER.

EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAINLY BETWEEN 10-20 KT IS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
UNDER 10KT DOMINATES THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGHB AND KEMK.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF HAITI TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF THE INVERTED
TROUGH.

BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. SOME
OF THE WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. SOME OF THE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO IS RELATED TO THE BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW REGIME THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 78W AND 87W
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED STRONG ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA NORTHWARD TO 14N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. THIS
CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO THE EAST AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THIS PART OF THE BASIN. OTHER CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 27/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WAS 0.10 IN GUADELOUPE AND 1.79 IN TEGUCIGALPA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FT
FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W.

...HISPANIOLA...

INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND
WILL REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE
CRISTOBAL IS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AS A TROPICAL
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.

A TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE WAVE PASSES.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N24W...TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N34W...TO 22N40W TO
22N49W...TO 18N59W.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 32N24W
18N59W TROUGH.

BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC EAST OF 60W. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
32N47W.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FROM BERMUDA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OTHER THAN
THAT MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
CRISTOBAL AND THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST OF
CRISTOBAL.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 54W FROM 11N TO 20N WITH
NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 53W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ASL/MT/NR


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