[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 270600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N
72.0W...OR ABOUT 385 NM TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AT
27/0600 UTC. CRISTOBAL IS STATIONARY AT THIS MOMENT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG FROM 28N
TO 33N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED
STRONG ARE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF CRISTOBAL JUST NORTH OF BERMUDA
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N TO 35N FROM 61W TO 68W. THE 24-
HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 27/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.11 IN
BERMUDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE WIND AND SEAS THAT ARE RELATED TO HURRICANE CRISTOBAL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20/21W SOUTH OF 22N
MOVING W AT 10-15KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...LITTLE TO NO
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W FROM 21N SOUTHWARD
MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. DRY SAHARAN AIR IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WAVE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N-
12N BETWEEN 27W AND 32W...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52/53W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 45W AND 54W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63/64W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA TO 15N BETWEEN 61W
AND 67W. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W...TO 9N21W 12N28W AND 12N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 12N34W TO 12N44W TO 13N52W TO 11N64W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG AND WITHIN 50 NM OF THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 8W AND 15W. SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W. OTHER CONVECTION IS
RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES
SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS
THE ENTIRE AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF 90W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
...NORTHWESTWARD...TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN BASIN.

NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAINLY BETWEEN 10-20KT IS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
UNDER 10KT DOMINATES THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KEMK...KOPM AND
KMDJ.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE
PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TO THE EAST OF THE INVERTED TROUGH.

BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. SOME
OF THE WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. SOME OF THE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALSO IS RELATED TO THE BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW REGIME THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 76W AND 84W
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED STRONG ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
COLOMBIA. OTHER CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES
DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 27/0000 UTC...ACCORDING
TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.10 IN GUADELOUPE AND 1.79
IN TEGUCIGALPA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FT S OF 14N
BETWEEN 70 AND 73W.

...HISPANIOLA...

INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AND WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL CONTINUES
TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM
THE AREA AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED IN THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE WAVE PASSES.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N24W...TO
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N32W...TO 20N41W TO
15N50W...TO 10N54W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OTHER THAN
THAT MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
CRISTOBAL AND THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST OF
CRISTOBAL.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE 32N24W
10N54W TROUGH.

BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC EAST OF 60W. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
33N47W.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FROM BERMUDA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 21N
TO 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 52W FROM 15N TO 18N AND
WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS UP TO 240 NM...PRODUCING E WINDS OF 20 TO
25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 9 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 43W
AND 55W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 8 FT IN MIXED N AND E
SWELL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ASL/MT


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