[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261137
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N
71.9W...OR ABOUT 530 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AT 26/0900
UTC. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHWARD 10 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 21N TO 27N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W. NUMEROUS MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG ARE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF A STATIONARY FRONT
NEAR BERMUDA WITHIN 50 NM OF A LINE FROM 28N69W TO 33N65W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ARE LOCATED FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 74W AND
77W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE WIND AND SEAS THAT ARE RELATED TO HURRICANE CRISTOBAL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING
W AT 10-15KT. BASED ON LONG TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE WAVE
WAS RE-POSITIONED IN A LOCATION IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE 26/00Z
ANALYSIS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. BASED ON LONG TERM SATELLITE
IMAGERY...THE WAVE WAS RE-POSITIONED IN A LOCATION IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE 26/00Z ANALYSIS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 41W
AND 48W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING
W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A LAYER OF
SAHARAN AIR. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 54W AND 58W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N15W...TO 10N20W 13N26W AND 13N29W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 13N29W TO 13N38W AND 11N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 21W AND 28W. OTHER
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO MEXICO NEAR 23N
100W. DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH IS KEEPING THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN BASIN CONVECTION FREE.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 28N 94W.
THE TROUGHING IS ESSENTIALLY A WESTERN EXTENSION OF LOWER
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ALONG AND WITHIN 150 NM NORTH
OF THE LENGTH OF THE TROUGH.

MOST OF THE BASIN IS UNDER NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW MAINLY BETWEEN
10-20 KT...WITH THE HIGHER WINDS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF. THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS UNDER LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED AT 22N96W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMDJ AND KVBS.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WESTERN
PUERTO RICO TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA NEAR 70W. IT IS
PRODUCING SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM 68W EASTWARD.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 11N65W TO 16N64W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 63W
AND 67W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA SOUTHWESTWARD TO
17N85W. THIS TROUGH IS AN EXTENSION OF A LARGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 100NM OF EITHER SIDE
OF THE LENGTH OF THE TROUGH.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WAS 0.43 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC EASTWARD ACROSS
PANAMA AND INTO NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SOUTH OF 11N
BETWEEN 75W AND 78W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FT S OF 15N
BETWEEN 70 AND 73W.

...HISPANIOLA...

SURFACE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED WELL WEST OF HISPANIOLA AND IS NOW
LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL CUBA. MAINLY DEBRIS CLOUD
AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM CRISTOBAL IS AFFECTING THE AREA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE HAS DIMINISHED
OVERNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL DAYTIME ISOLATED MODERATE REDEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA. THE AFFECTS OF CRISTOBAL WILL DIMINISH OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR TODAY BETWEEN THE
PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND AN INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THE INVERTED TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC EAST OF 60W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA AT 32N65W TO 37N61W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE EASTERN CONUS.
VERY DRY AIR IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FROM BERMUDA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
ABOUT CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 2.86 IN BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 33N44W...TO 33N35W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 45W FROM 11N TO
20N...PRODUCING E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 9 FT FROM
12N TO 16N BETWEEN 43W AND 51W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ASL/MT


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