[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL IS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N
72.0W...OR ABOUT 570 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. CRISTOBAL
IS MOVING NORTHWARD 5 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 990 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 21N TO 26N
BETWEEN 68W AND 74W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ARE
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR BERMUDA WITHIN 50
NM OF A LINE FROM 27N67W TO 33N65W AND ALONG A TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST OF CRISTOBAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS...WESTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 69W AND 83W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE WIND AND SEAS THAT ARE RELATED TO TROPICAL STORM
CRISTOBAL.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N27W TO 21N29W
MOVING W AT 10-15KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...LITTLE TO NO
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 12N-15N
BETWEEN 39W AND 45W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N56W TO 10N54W
MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
LAYER OF SAHARAN AIR. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W...TO 12N20W 13N26W AND 14N30W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 14N30W TO 13N38W AND 8N48W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND
48W. OTHER CONVECTION IS RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSED IN
THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO MEXICO NEAR 22N
100W. DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH IS KEEPING THE
CENTRAL BASIN CONVECTION FREE.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO 28N 93W. THE
TROUGHING IS ESSENTIALLY A WESTERN EXTENSION OF LOWER PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 28N NORTHWARD FROM 89W
TO THE TEXAS COAST AND FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W.

MUCH OF THE GULF IS UNDER NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW MAINLY BETWEEN
10-20 KT...WITH THE HIGHER WINDS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMDJ.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM 65W
EASTWARD.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 11N63W TO 15N63W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 11N TO 16N
BETWEEN 61W AND 63W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR CRISTOBAL
SOUTHWESTWARD TO 15N81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 83W.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WAS 0.43 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 2.86 IN BERMUDA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC TO THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF PANAMA...EASTWARD ACROSS PANAMA AND INTO COLOMBIA TO A
1006 MB LOW LOCATED IN EASTERN VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION SOUTH OF 12 N
BETWEEN 75W AND 83W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FT S OF 15N
BETWEEN 67 AND 72W.

...HISPANIOLA...

SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA AND NEAR JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG HAVE BEEN OCCURRING TODAY ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS CRISTOBAL MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWEST AWAY FROM
HISPANIOLA.

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH A
LARGE AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM
CRISTOBAL ACROSS THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD TOWARD THE AREA IN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC EAST OF 60W. A
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 35N63W TO 29N71W JUST TO THE WEST
OF BERMUDA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS BETWEEN THE STATIONARY
FRONT AND THE EASTERN CONUS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FROM BERMUDA SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
ABOUT CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE 24-
HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS
2.86 IN BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1025 HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 33N44W...TO 33N35W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26N NW OF A LINE FROM
31N70W TO 26N67W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ASL/MT


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