[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 20N71W...
ALONG THE COAST OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N71W. MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS AROUND THE
AREA OF THE 1007 MB LOW CENTER/SURFACE TROUGH COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 27N BETWEEN 61W
AND 76W. SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
LOW CENTER/TROUGH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN 66W AND 76W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SCATTERED STRONG FROM 16N TO THE SOUTH
COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND 73W...FROM THE
NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA TO 26N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W...AND IN
PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N TO
16N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W.

THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
23/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 3.14 IN ST.
THOMAS...1.34 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.33 IN BERMUDA...
AND 0.17 IN GUADELOUPE. THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEATHER BUREAU IS
REPORTING 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN MILLIMETERS...AS OF 22/1200
UTC...30.4 SANTIAGO CENTRO...27.2 AEROPUERTO PUNTA CANA...24.8
SANCHEZ...19.0 GASPAR HERNANDEZ (ESPAILLAT)...17.7 SAMANA...15.7
AEROPUERTO ARROYO BARRIL...AND 15.2 SABANA GRANDE DE BOYA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N71W. WITHIN 30 NM N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW
CENTER WINDS 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240
NM NW AND NE QUADRANTS WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT E OF
BAHAMAS. FOR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS
TO 8 FT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS POSITION HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE
UNIVERSITY OF ALBANY TROPICAL WAVE DIAGNOSTICS. THE NORTHERN
VORTICITY THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS WITHIN 480 NM TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE PART OF THE WAVE THAT WE ARE FOLLOWING
ALONG 35W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N
TO 12N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W...TO 10N30W AND 8N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N40W
TO 6N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO
15N BETWEEN 16W AND 20W IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF AFRICA AND ITS
COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N20W 9N23W 8N35W 8N40W 8N46W 7N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 50W WESTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N101W IN MEXICO. PART OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE 23N101W CENTER COVERS THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL
WATERS OF MEXICO.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS
TOWARD THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...AT KVBS. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER
THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N78W...ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 70W. THE 23N78W
CYCLONIC CENTER IS TO THE WEST OF THE WIND FLOW REGIME THAT
SURROUNDS THE SPECIAL FEATURE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 20N71W. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 23N78W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N NORTHWARD
FROM 80W WESTWARD.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
23/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 3.14 IN ST.
THOMAS...1.34 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...0.33 IN BERMUDA...
AND 0.17 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA
BEYOND 86W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD FROM 77W WESTWARD...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...AND THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 20N71W.

...HISPANIOLA...

PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ABOUT
THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N71W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...MULTILAYERED
CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS COVER BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO...
LA ROMANA...AND PUNTA CANA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST TIME.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 16N57W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO
23N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W. A TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE 16N57W
CYCLONIC CENTER TO 24N50W AND 29N43W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SURROUNDS THE
CENTER.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO
27N60W. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF ANOTHER MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 33N66W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA THAT IS COVERED ALREADY BY THE WIND FLOW REGIMES
THAT ACCOMPANY THE 16N57W CYCLONIC CENTER...THE SPECIAL FEATURE
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AND THE 23N78W CYCLONIC CENTER.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 23/1200 UTC...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.33 IN BERMUDA..

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N26W...TO 30N40W 26N62W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...AND THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 20N71W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net