[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED 10 NM MILES N OF THE COAST OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W...MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N70W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
S BAHAMAS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 65W-73W. THIS LOW HAS BEEN
GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE
BAHAMAS...AND THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN THESE ISLANDS TODAY. HEAVY
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES ALONG OR NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.
INTERESTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 25N44W TO 10N44W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE AXIS WAS
MOVED TO MATCH WITH CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...LATEST
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME AS DRY SAHARAN AIR AND DUST
ARE IN ITS ENVIRONMENT N OF 21N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W
AND CONTINUES TO 10N30W TO 8N47W. AN ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 8N47W TO
6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 25W-
29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN
34W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED ON THE N GULF NEAR
28N90W. SURFACE OBS AND SCATTEROMETER WINDS SHOW ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5-10 KT EVIDENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF N
OF 24N. 10-15 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE S OF 25N. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION REMAINS W OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 82W-85W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF FROM S OF 24N BETWEEN 93W-
97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE SW
GULF ENHANCING CONVECTION.  EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE NE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC PRODUCING A LARGE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS.
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE
CENTER OF THE LOW...10-15 KT CYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 89W-92W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA
S OF 12N BETWEEN 73W-85W MAINLY DUE TO A MONSOON TROUGH. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA
NEAR 13N86W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NE OF THE CENTER IS
PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF CUBA FROM 20N-22N
BETWEEN 80W-83W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N63W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE
CENTER IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT THE
SPECIAL FEATURE LOW TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH RESIDUAL CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND LEEWARD ISLANDS.

HISPANIOLA...

THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC PRESENTLY HAS THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION
OVER THE ISLAND. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. EXPECT
THE AREA OF HEAVY CONVECTION TO MOVE W TO INCLUDE HAITI OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH MUDSLIDES AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION N OF HISPANIOLA...
SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. SURFACE HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS
THE BASIN WITH CENTER NEAR 33N23W WITH RIDGING TO NEAR 30N55W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 22N62W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE W OF THE CENTER IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT THE SPECIAL
FEATURE LOW TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE IN THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE NW
ATLANTIC NEAR 31N IN 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
N OF 30N BETWEEN 60W-80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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