[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 22N43W TO 13N40W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 38W-46W.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 21N55W TO 10N52W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE
TO BE S OF 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-13N
BETWEEN 46W-56W.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT
22N88W TO THE E PACIFIC AT 8N90W MOVING W AT 20 KT. SUBTLE 700
MB TROUGHING ACCOMPANIES THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS.
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS MOSTLY OVER THE E PACIFIC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 21N16W TO
15N20W TO 12N40W TO 10N50W TO 9N54W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 16W-19W ...AND FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 23W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NOT PRODUCING CONVECTION THERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
HOWEVER OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 84W.  SURFACE RIDGING
IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 27N. SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE MAINLY ONLY 10 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT 23N98W. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 89W-
93W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W GULF W OF 92W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
PRESENTLY OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-14N BETWEEN 76W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT 18N81W. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N60W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF 14N. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL. TRADES ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG WITH THE USUAL POSSIBILITY OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY.  ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO
BE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N65W WITH SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
BAHAMAS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 75W-80W. ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N34W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 70W-79W. A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N60W ENHANCING SHOWERS N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N41W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND OVER THE
BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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