[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191051
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N37W TO 22N42W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING ALOFT AND A
MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY NOTED ALONG THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS NEAR 15N40W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N51W TO 21N55W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT. 700 MB TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS BECOME
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA...HOWEVER SUBTLE
INDICATION IS THAT THE AXIS HAS CROSSED 50W DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS. 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY IS ALSO FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY
OF 14N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN
51W-54W...AND FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 57W-59W.

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N88W TO 22N85W MOVING W AT
25 KT. SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A 850 MB
RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR
16N88W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-16N
BETWEEN 88W-94W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 84W-
86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 21N16W TO
15N20W TO 12N45W TO 09N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 22W-36W...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-13N BETWEEN 33W-
51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N97W THAT INFLUENCES MUCH
OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W. WHILE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS
ALONG 28N ACROSS THE BASIN...AMPLE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 20N-23N
BETWEEN 90W-97W. ELSEWHERE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE SW NORTH ATLC IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FAR NW GULF
WATERS. ONE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF IS A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS S
OF 21N BETWEEN 84W-86W. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ANCHORED ALONG 28N THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD AND REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W IS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 08N-15N BETWEEN
76W-93W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EAST OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE REGION AND ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE PERSISTING GENERALLY S OF 18N
BETWEEN 65W-77W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL. VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE AND OVERALL DRYING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TRADES ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST ALONG WITH THE USUAL POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION DUE TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 27N79W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SURFACE RIDGING
ALONG 28N. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...UPPER LEVEL
NW FLOW PREVAILS N OF 27N W OF 65W PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR SKIES
FOR TODAY. LINGERING MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
HOWEVER OCCURRING S OF 26N W OF 79W DUE TO MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND BAHAMAS. THERE IS ALSO
DIFFLUENCE NORTH OF 28N E OF 79W...WHICH IS HELPING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 26N64W AND FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.
FARTHER EAST...THE SURFACE RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N44W SW TO
28N45W. TO THE EAST...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 31N29W AND EXTENDS NE TO 38N19W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOTH BOUNDARIES.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC
STEMMING FROM A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN/RIVERA


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