[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N24W TO 22N23W MOVING W AT 5 KT.
THE WAVE HAS MOVED WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
FOCUSED ON A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
15N20W. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB GLOBAL MODEL
INDICATED TROUGHING THAT HAS LARGELY MOVED WEST OF THE LOW AND
REMAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-30W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 25W-29W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N38W TO 20N40W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N38W. IN ADDITION...WEAK
AND BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING IS NOTED ON GLOBAL MODEL DATA BETWEEN
30W-50W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-
14N BETWEEN 35W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N71W TO 21N69W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE BETWEEN 65W-74W WITH
A 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS FOCUSED NEAR 13N71W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 69W-72W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO
13N24W TO 13N34W TO 07N49W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N49W TO 06N57W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 11W-18W...AND FROM 07N-10N
BETWEEN 29W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N96W THAT INFLUENCES
MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W THIS MORNING. WHILE SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 26N/27N ACROSS THE BASIN...AMPLE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG A LINE FROM 30N86W TO 26N92W...AND FROM
18N-22N BETWEEN 89W-95W. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 27N THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W IS BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN
68W-73W WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY N OF 16N. OTHERWISE...THE
OTHER MINOR FEATURE IMPACTING THE BASIN IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 19N76W GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS THIS MORNING NEAR
20N81W. FINALLY...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE PERSISTING
GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 67W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W IS RESULTING IN INCREASED
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING ACROSS ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN
69W-72W. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD AND MOVE WEST
OF THE ISLAND BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THEREAFTER...THE
USUAL TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RESUME WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION POSSIBLE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 27N78W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SURFACE RIDGING
ALONG 26N/27N. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...
GENERALLY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS NEAR THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC. INCREASED
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
MORNING WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 27N W OF 60W.
OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS FOR THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. FARTHER EAST...
THE RIDGING IS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N61W.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
ANCHORED NEAR 29N47W...AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N34W AND EXTENDS SW TO 24N50W. A
SECONDARY WAVE OF ENERGY TO THE NW OF THE COLD FRONT IS FOCUSED
ON A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
SW FROM THE LOW TO 28N47W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. FINALLY...
ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC STEMMING
FROM A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 41N19W.
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S-SW TO 32N23W TO 24N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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