[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N25W TO 20N23W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
THE WAVE HAS MOVED WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
FOCUSED ON A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
15N20W. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB GLOBAL MODEL
INDICATED TROUGHING THAT HAS LARGELY MOVED WEST OF THE LOW AND
REMAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-30W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 22W-
29W...AND FROM 08N-10N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N38W TO 18N37W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N38W. IN ADDITION...WEAK
AND BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING IS NOTED ON GLOBAL MODEL DATA BETWEEN
32W-46W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-
14N BETWEEN 34W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N67W TO 21N66W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE BETWEEN 64W-72W WITH
A 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS FOCUSED NEAR 13N67W. CONVECTION REMAINS
LIMITED WITH THE WAVE WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING
FROM 10N-23N BETWEEN 64W-72W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N17W TO
15N20W TO 12N25W TO 13N32W TO 11N38W TO 07N47W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N47W TO
08N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N
BETWEEN 10W-15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N96W THAT INFLUENCES
MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W THIS EVENING. WHILE SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 26N/27N ACROSS THE BASIN...AMPLE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS NEAR 28N92W...AND MORE CLUSTERED ACTIVITY
ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N-21N
BETWEEN 89W-93W. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE SW NORTH ATLC AND FOCUSED ON A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
27N86W IN THE EAST GULF IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO SUNDAY. THE
RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG 27N THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W IS ENTERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR BETWEEN 65W-71W. OTHERWISE...THE OTHER
MAJOR FEATURE IMPACTING THE BASIN IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 21N83W OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SE THEN EAST FROM THE LOW TO 18N78W TO 19N71W.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITHIN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN
78W-81W. FINALLY...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE PERSISTING
GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 67W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W IS RESULTING
IN INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO SUNDAY WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD AND BE WEST
OF THE ISLAND BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THEREAFTER...THE
USUAL TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RESUME WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION POSSIBLE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 26N78W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SURFACE RIDGING
ALONG 26N/27N. TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...
GENERALLY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS NEAR THE BASE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC. INCREASE
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 28N W OF 62W.
OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR
CONDITIONS FOR THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. FARTHER EAST...
THE RIDGING IS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N60W
AND A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N54W. ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED 29N46W...AT
THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N35W AND EXTENDS SW TO 27N42W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FINALLY...ANOTHER SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC STEMMING FROM A 1026 MB
HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 45N15W. THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS S-SW TO 32N24W TO 25N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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