[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151059
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W/18W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 19W AND
22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM
8N TO 16N BETWEEN 16W AND 25W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N29W TO A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 10N31W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 35W AND 39W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 26W AND 45W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...
AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 17N BETWEEN 24W AND 50W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W FROM 20N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 56W AND 59W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N92W BEYOND THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVER THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO
THE WEST OF 87W...AND INLAND ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 19N16W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
10N31W...TO 12N55W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS TO DO WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GEORGIA...ALABAMA...AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO COASTAL LOUISIANA...INTO THE GULF WATERS
OFF THE TEXAS COAST IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS INLAND AREAS OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST
STATES FROM GEORGIA AND ALABAMA TO TEXAS...AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TO 25N ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
INLAND...IN THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...AND THEN INLAND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED MOISTURE AND SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE
WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 21N ALONG THE MEXICO COAST...TO
23N90W...25N85W AND 29N85W.

THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH...ORIGINATING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 83W...FROM 27N SOUTHWARD BEYOND CUBA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 85W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N92W BEYOND THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVER THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO
THE WEST OF 87W...AND INLAND ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND TO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF...ALONG
THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...KXIH...AND KVBS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING STATIONS...
KGVX...KVOA...AND K1B7.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

IN TEXAS...MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED NEAR
AND AROUND THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AND SURROUNDING AREAS. IN
LOUISIANA...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IN LAKE CHARLES. IN
FLORIDA...A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IN PENSACOLA. RAIN HAS
BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS IN THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW CLOUD
CEILING IN MARIANNA. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF
BROOKSVILLE. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE
TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA AND IN SARASOTA.
RAINSHOWERS WERE REPORTED RECENTLY IN PARTS OF FORT MYERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THROUGH HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA IN CENTRAL AMERICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
WESTWARD. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
ALSO IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N IN HONDURAS
NORTHWARD FROM 78W WESTWARD.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THAT IS BEING
AFFECTED BY THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INVERTED TROUGH.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA TO 15N77W...CURVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 78W EASTWARD...IN CLUSTERS OF LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT PRESENT AT THIS TIME IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA...BETWEEN 81W AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9
TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10
FEET FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 82W. A SECOND AREA OF
CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE 18-HOUR FORECAST OF...NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 86W.

...HISPANIOLA...

CLOUD OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO...PUNTA CANA...
SANTIAGO...AND PUERTO PLATA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA...FROM THE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB INDICATES THAT HISPANIOLA WILL
BE IN THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND 700 MB
SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N66W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 31N BETWEEN 56W AND 74W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 28N TO 32N
BETWEEN 72W AND THE U.S.A. COAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 21N
NORTHWARD FROM 66W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 29W FROM 32N
TO 23N. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SURROUNDS THE TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 26N38W...TO A 1018 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N62W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN
71W AND 75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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