[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 150604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W/18W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 17W AND
22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM
6N TO 20N BETWEEN 14W AND 23W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N29W 14N29W...TO A
1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N30W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 33W AND 37W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W
AND 43W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW...AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA THAT IS
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 16N BETWEEN 24W AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N51W 14N52W 10N52W
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE WAS RE-POSITIONED A BIT BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 55W AND 57W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N91W BEYOND THE EASTERN PART OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG WAS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AT 14/2345 UTC. SOME OF THAT PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED...AND
SOME OF IT HAS REMAINED INTACT. SCATTERED STRONG COVERS THE AREA
FROM 13N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 89W AND 97W INCLUDING IN THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 11N30W...TO 8N36W AND 10N52W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
10N52W INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N62W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS TO DO WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GEORGIA...ALABAMA...AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO COASTAL LOUISIANA...INTO THE GULF WATERS
OFF THE TEXAS COAST IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS INLAND AREAS OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST
STATES FROM GEORGIA AND ALABAMA TO TEXAS. A STATIONARY FRONT IS
INLAND...IN THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...AND THEN INLAND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 22N97W 24N90W
25N87W 23N85W...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH...ORIGINATING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 83W...FROM 27N SOUTHWARD BEYOND CUBA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST AND 85W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 21N91W BEYOND THE EASTERN PART OF THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 14/2345 UTC. SOME OF THAT
PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED...AND SOME OF IT HAS REMAINED INTACT.
SCATTERED STRONG COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
BETWEEN 89W AND 97W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1020 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N65W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO
COAST NEAR 24N/25N. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
COMPARATIVELY WEAK AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KATP...KMDJ...KBVE IN SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...AND KDLP.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

IN LOUISIANA...MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. IN FLORIDA...A LOW
CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN
MILTON IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN CRESTVIEW. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN
THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS
AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THROUGH HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA IN CENTRAL AMERICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG OFF THE COAST OF CUBA TO
THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 80W...OFF THE COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 85W AND LAND.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N NORTHWARD FROM THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE WESTWARD. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N
IN HONDURAS NORTHWARD FROM 78W WESTWARD.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE EAST OF THE AREA THAT IS BEING
AFFECTED BY THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INVERTED TROUGH.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA TO 15N77W...CURVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 77W EASTWARD...IN CLUSTERS OF LOW
LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N84W BEYOND 7N88W...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IN A CLUSTER THAT IS OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA WITHIN A
30 NM RADIUS OF 10N82W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9
TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. A SECOND AREA OF
CONCERN CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 82W. A
THIRD AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE 18-HOUR FORECAST OF
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER
THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 86W.

...HISPANIOLA...

CLOUD OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO...PUNTA CANA...
SANTIAGO...AND PUERTO PLATA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA...FROM THE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
ATLANTIC OCEAN 24N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB INDICATES THAT HISPANIOLA WILL
BE IN THE CENTER OF AN AREA OF ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB AND 700 MB
SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N66W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 31N BETWEEN 56W AND 74W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS FROM 22N NORTHWARD FROM 64W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 29W FROM 32N
TO 23N. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SURROUNDS THE TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 29N38W...TO A 1020 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N65W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO
COAST NEAR 24N/25N.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN
71W AND 75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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