[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 140605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED AUG 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N24W 15N25W 10N26W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 24W AND 32W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW...AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA THAT IS
FROM 4N TO 13N BETWEEN 21W AND 34W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N44W 14N46W 10N47W
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND
45W...AND FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W MOVING
WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH HONDURAS...
NICARAGUA...AND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. THE WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N84W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS TO THE
NORTH OF 16N FROM 78W WESTWARD.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W...TO 10N24W 10N30W 12N41W AND 8N48W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 8N48W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 9N60W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG OVER LAND IN THE
COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 13W AND 17W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 13W AND 17W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE U.S.A. FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AREA...THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A...INTO
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH TEXAS 16 TO 24 HOURS AGO HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD. IT IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD ANY MORE...AND THE FRONT THAT
IT WAS SUPPORTING HAS BECOME STATIONARY...FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH
OF THE LINE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND.

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
WAS CONFINED TO THE AREA THAT RUNS FROM THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
TEXAS GULF COASTS INTO MEXICO ALONG THE COAST NEAR 20N...16 TO
24 HOURS AGO...NOW IS IN MEXICO NEAR 20N100W. NEARBY CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS INLAND IN MEXICO.

A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...THAT WAS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO 16 TO 24 HOURS AGO...NOW IS IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. IT IS SPREADING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 90W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 28N SOUTHWARD IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS FROM
90W EASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AWAY FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK...EVEN
WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/85W MOVING
WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH HONDURAS...
NICARAGUA...AND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. THE WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N84W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS TO THE
NORTH OF 16N FROM 78W WESTWARD.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
THAT IS BEING AFFECTED BY THE 17N84W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NOT PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN
CLUSTERS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO IN VENEZUELA AND
76W. WEAKENING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 79W AND 85W IN NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM
11.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W.

...HISPANIOLA...

EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION MOVED FROM NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WESTWARD ACROSS HAITI...
AND THEN THEY DISSIPATED AFTER EXITING HAITI FOR THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE.

CLOUD OBSERVATIONS...FAIR SKIES ARE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AT THIS
TIME. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WIND
FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA...ACCOMPANIED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB INDICATES THAT HISPANIOLA WILL
BE IN THE CENTER OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW
EVENTUALLY BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY...BEING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH THAT WILL SPREAD TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THAT WILL CROSS PUERTO RICO. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS THE AREA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST-TO-EAST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE 32N54W 29N56W TROUGH...AND TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE 22N58W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES...WAS 0.72 FOR BERMUDA...FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 14/0000 UTC... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 22N61W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 27N
BETWEEN 55W AND 64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 73W AND
79W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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