[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140012
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N23W TO 11N25W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MOISTURE AREA S OF 13N. THE
SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOWS SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR N OF 13N
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-
12N BETWEEN 26W-29W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 18N43W TO 10N46W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AREA S
OF 22N. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A LARGE 700 MB TROUGH.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 43W-47W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N83W TO 8N83W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE AREA S
OF 20N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-
16N BETWEEN 80W-86W TO INCLUDE PARTS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...
NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
14N17W TO 10N22W TO 10N29W TO 13N37W TO 9N47W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 9N47W AND CONTINUES TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 11W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N90W TO
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL
WAVE...IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 27N97W TO 19N98W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE WAVE
AXIS. EVENING AIRMASS CONVECTION REMAINS OVER FLORIDA.
CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE N OF 26N.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA W OF 83W...AND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 17N. 5-10 KT VARIABLE WINDS ARE NOTED
THROUGHOUT THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 24N93W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 90W-94W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW E OF 90W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE SURFACE FRONT TO DRIFT N OF THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DRIFT N AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF. ALSO EXPECT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF. FINALLY EXPECT MORE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. 10-20 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS E OF 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION ARE OVER E CUBA E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER NW HAITI...AND JUST W OF JAMAICA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER N
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 65W-76W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
NEAR 17N83W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF
75W. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 72W. DRY AIR SAL IS ALSO E
OF 72W SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE
W WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY OVER NW HAITI. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE  CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N54W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM 31N45W TO 28N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
NEAR 29N74W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N58W. A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 20N38W. OF NOTE... DRY
AIR SAL IS S OF 27N TO THE TROPICAL WAVES E OF 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MRF/ERA

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net