[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD
TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N33W. THE WAVE
IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM 6N
TO 20N BETWEEN 22W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE IN THE LARGER AREA THAT GOES FROM 6N TO 20N BETWEEN
22W AND 40W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE CUTS THROUGH WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND IT REACHES THE PENINSULA DE LA
GUAJIRA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD
20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
WITHIN 660 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE. SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF
HISPANIOLA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 91W/92W...FROM 22N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED STRONG IN EASTERN GUATEMALA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N
SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL NEAR 16N16W...CURVING JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 10N34W AND 8N43W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 8N43W TO 7N46W AND TO 9N57W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM
10N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 21W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N TO
11N BETWEEN 43W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 91W/92W...FROM 22N SOUTHWARD...ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED STRONG IN EASTERN GUATEMALA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N
SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST/IN THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE AREA THAT GOES
FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 92W AND 105W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W
WESTWARD.

A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
ENCOMPASSES THE AREA THAT STRETCHES FROM CUBA ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND 92W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE WATERS THAT
ARE PART OF THE AREA OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE CENTER.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 29N NORTHWARD TO THE U.S.A. GULF COASTAL
PLAINS FROM 91W EASTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
FROM 26N NORTHWARD FROM 91W EASTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 25N63W...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KGVX...KCRH...AND KVOA IS REPORTING LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS AND A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN LAKE CHARLES AND AT THE NEW ORLEANS
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...IN LOUISIANA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS
AND RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER COVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA COASTAL
PLAINS FROM THE PANHANDLE TO PERRY FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W FROM HISPANIOLA
SOUTHWARD TO THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA OF VENEZUELA. IT HAS
BEEN MOVING EASTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG WITHIN 660 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE.

THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
YUCATAN CHANNEL CYCLONIC CENTER.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES...WAS 0.09 FOR
GUADELOUPE...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA BEYOND 85W/86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N FROM 86W EASTWARD
TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN NICARGAUA TO THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. A SECOND AREA OF
CONCERN CONSISTS OF...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO
8 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 75W AND 81W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE CUTS THROUGH
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND IT REACHES THE
PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE WAVE HAS BEEN
MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG WITHIN 660 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE. SOME OF THIS
PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF
HISPANIOLA.

CLOUD OBSERVATIONS...BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. NEARBY RAINSHOWERS
HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS IN SANTO
DOMINGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB...500 MB...AND FOR 700 MB
SHOWS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA.
EVERYTHING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ALONG 30N/32N FROM 50W WESTWARD
BEYOND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N43W 26N60W 26N80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES...WAS 0.08 FOR BERMUDA...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
12/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N57W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 28N
BETWEEN 50W AND 62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE IN
THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 32N42W
20N47W. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N36W 27N45W 25N63W...WESTWARD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF SOUTHWEST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N
BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. THE 18-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
21N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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