[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 120604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W FROM 19N
SOUTHWARD TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N32W.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE
AREA THAT IS FROM 6N TO 20N BETWEEN 22W AND 40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 34W AND
36W...AND FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 52W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W FROM HISPANIOLA
SOUTHWARD TO THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA OF VENEZUELA. IT HAS
BEEN MOVING EASTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG WITHIN 660 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE.

A CENTRAL AMERICA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE
WESTERN EDGES OF THE THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...SOUTHWARD BEYOND
GUATEMALA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM GUATEMALA TO THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 17N16W...CURVING TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO THE 1012 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR ALONG THE 32W/33W TROPICAL
WAVE...TO 9N36W 9N40W AND 8N42W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N42W
TO 7N47W AND TO 9N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 21W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND
THE CENTER COVERS THE AREA THAT GOES FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
92W AND 105W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
27N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD.

A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
ENCOMPASSES THE AREA THAT STRETCHES FROM CUBA ACROSS THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN EASTERN
CUBA AND 92W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN
THE WATERS THAT ARE PART OF THE AREA OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 26N NORTHWARD FROM 90W EASTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 26N70W...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KCRH. STATION KVBS IS REPORTING A MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER PARTS OF THE TEXAS
COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST NORTHWARD.
CLEARING SKIES COVER LOUISIANA...AFTER EARLIER RAIN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W FROM HISPANIOLA
SOUTHWARD TO THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA OF VENEZUELA. IT HAS
BEEN MOVING EASTWARD 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG WITHIN 660 NM TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE.

THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
YUCATAN CHANNEL CYCLONIC CENTER.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES...WAS 0.09 FOR
GUADELOUPE...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA BEYOND 85W/86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF 11N
FROM 80W WESTWARD. NUMEROUS STRONG ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. A SECOND AREA OF
CONCERN CONSISTS OF...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO
9 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. ANY EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED
ALREADY.

CLOUD OBSERVATIONS...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA
ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA.
NEARBY RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE LAST FEW
OBSERVATIONS IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB...500 MB...AND FOR 700 MB
SHOWS BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA.
EVERYTHING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ALONG 32N/33N FROM 60W
WESTWARD BEYOND COASTAL GEORGIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 26N60W 26N80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES...WAS 0.08 FOR BERMUDA...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
12/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N57W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 28N
BETWEEN 50W AND 62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE IN
THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 32N42W
20N47W. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N40W 26N58W...WESTWARD ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 18-HOUR FORECAST OF SOUTHWEST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET FROM 30N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF EAST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF
21N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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