[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080537
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI AUG 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N38W TO
10N37W MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WEAK WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. FURTHER N...THE WAVE
IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN SAHARAN AIR LAYER. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 36W-39W.

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 18N60W TO
10N61W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 58W-
63W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM CUBA NEAR 22N80W
TO 10N80W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS IS A
HIGH AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A LARGE MOISTURE AREA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE S COAST
OF CUBA FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 76W-81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 19N16W AND CONTINUES TO 12N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
12N27W TO 8N39W TO 8N50W TO 11N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 51W-58W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N86W. THE E GULF HAS 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS GOING
AROUND THE HIGH. THE W GULF HAS HAS 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS. S
FLORIDA HAS NOCTURNAL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 26N DUE
TO A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N76W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST NW
OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 23N99W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER MEXICO
FROM 17N-25N BETWEEN 96W-104W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
BOTH UPPER LEVEL LOWS TO DRIFT NW WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND
CUBA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...AND S GUATEMALA...FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 88W-92W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 72W-
76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W IS ALSO PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 75W-
80W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
CENTER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES TO
MOVE W WITH CONVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

RESIDUAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER NW HAITI DUE TO A THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTING NW. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR CONVECTION TO REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE E
CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER MOST OF THE BAHAMAS DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. MORE SHOWERS ARE OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA
FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 79W-81W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 32N64W TO 29N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE TROUGH N OF 30N. A LARGE 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 33N38W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... BESIDES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...ANOTHER LARGE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N57W ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 54W-62W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE
E WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION OVER THE N BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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