[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU AUG 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N35W TO
10N34W MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WEAK WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER...WAVE IS ALSO
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN SAHARAN AIR LAYER. THIS IS
RESULTING IN NO SHOWERS OR CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 18N58W
TO 10N60W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM
14N57W TO 11N62W INCLUDING BARBADOS AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM OVER CUBA NEAR
22N78W TO 10N78W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
WAVE IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED
BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS IS ENHANCING THE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT COVER THE AREA
N OF 17N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 74W-80W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 16N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 11N23W TO 8N36W WHERE THE ITCZ
CONTINUES ALONG 8N48W TO 11N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N-9N E OF 16W TO INLAND OVER
SIERRA LEONE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS THE AREA WITHIN
90 NM ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 45W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF THIS EVENING WITH A 1018 MB
HIGH LOCATED NEAR 27N90W AND AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SMALL UPPER LOW
IS INLAND OVER E MEXICO SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SW
GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM 24N97W TO 20N95W GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN
93W-97W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND
OVER MEXICO AND COULD POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS. THE
UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN EARLY SAT AND ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ON SAT AND SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 80W-85W. AN
UPPER LOW IS N OF CUBA COVERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 16N
BETWEEN 70W-80W. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS UPPER LOW. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N AND COUPLED WITH A 1011 MB LOW
S OF PANAMA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA.
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS DUE TO THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CROSS THE W CARIBBEAN AND THEN THE YUCATAN BY SAT. THE TROPICAL
WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY SUN.

HISPANIOLA...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COVER MOST
OF HAITI AND ALONG THE N PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS
EVENING GENERATED BY THE UPPER LOW N OF CUBA. THE UPPER LOW WILL
SHIFT W THROUGH EARLY SAT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO GIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ISLAND WITH
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING LATE SUN INTO MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 72W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS BERMUDA TO 31N67W
WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG 28N73W ACROSS ABACO
ISLAND TO 25N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N
OF 29N BETWEEN 60W-67W. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE MOVING INTO THE
ATLC WATERS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST N OF WEST PALM BEACH.
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND CUBA
NEAR 22N75W COVERING THE AREA S OF 26N BETWEEN 70W-79W AND IS
GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF CUBA AND HAITI WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE AREA S OF
26N BETWEEN 71W-79W. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 27N56W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 54W-57W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE N OF
15N AND ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N39W. W ATLC SURFACE
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FRI. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
SHIFT N SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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