[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT AUG 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 67.5W AT 02/1800
UTC OR ABOUT 95 NM WSW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 130 NM
ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING WNW AT 19 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM CENTER
FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 63.5W-67.5W. THIS INCLUDES ALL OF PUERTO
RICO. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 21N33W TO 10N34W IS MOVING W 15
KT. THE WAVE IS EASILY IDENTIFIABLE ON THE LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EXHIBITS WELL-DEFINED WAVE FEATURES.
HOWEVER THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 20N47W TO 10N43W IS MOVING W 15
KT. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N39W. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS EXCEPT AT THE FAR
SOUTHERN END.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W
TO 10N30W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 10N39W TO 06N45W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N45W TO
04N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG AND S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 05N BETWEEN 25W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
LOCATED ALONG THE MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER NEAR 29.5N101W AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY W DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW EXTENDS INTO THE NW QUADRANT OF THE GULF. CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT COVERS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GULF DUE TO A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN.
SIMILAR FLOW IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF N OF 27N E OF 88W DUE TO A
LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST AT
92.5W TO 28N93W TO THE TEXAS COAST AT 28N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND UP TO 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT. ALSO A
1014 MB LOW IS LOCATED OVER SW LOUISIANA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 24N90W TO THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS LOCATED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE TO ORLANDO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN
IS CENTERED NEAR 18.5N85W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE DUE W OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS COVER PANAMA AND MOST OF COSTA RICA. SKIES ARE MOSTLY FAIR
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA.

...HISPANIOLA...
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS FORECAST TO TRACK THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE AND THEN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF HISPANIOLA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED TO THE NE
OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25.5N74.5W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 28N72W TO 21N76W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A
WELL-DEFINED AND ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 32N52W AND WILL MOVE NE AND THEN
DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MOVING DOWNSTREAM A
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR
25N38W WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LOCATED FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 25W-
48W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF EASTERLY
WINDS ALOFT OVER THE TROPICS S OF 13N E OF 55W INTO AFRICA.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N
OF 27N E OF 30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 31N52W THROUGH
A 1018 MB LOW NEAR 29N55W TO 28N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE LOCATED N OF 27N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


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