[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.7N 65.5W AT 02/1200
UTC OR ABOUT 75 NM SW OF SAINT CROIX AND ABOUT 105 NM SSE OF SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO MOVING WNW AT 19 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 63W-65W...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 61W-66W. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/
WTNT33 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N32W TO 21N30W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 25W-37W
WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF 16N32W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N41W TO 19N47W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING EXTENDING THE LENGTH OF
THE WAVE AXIS WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FIELDS INDICATING
MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL ENERGY REMAINING SE OF THE WAVE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH
FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N37W.
THE WAVE HAS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE
AXIS...HOWEVER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM
10N-12N BETWEEN 38W-41W TO THE W-NW OF THE LOW.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W
TO 10N25W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N37W TO 04N44W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N44W TO
04N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N
BETWEEN 19W-33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N
BETWEEN 37W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING THAT SUPPORTS A COUPLE OF WEAK IMPULSES OF ENERGY
MOVING EASTWARD WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGHING ALONG 30N. THE
WESTERN IMPULSE IS ANALYZED AS 1014 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED
ACROSS SW LOUISIANA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO 28N97W AND
INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING N OF 27N BETWEEN 91W-97W. FARTHER EAST...THE OTHER
IMPULSE OF ENERGY IS ANALYZED AS A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED ACROSS
SE GEORGIA NEAR 31N82W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
GENERALLY S-SW ACROSS THE WESTERN COAST OF THE PENINSULA TO NEAR
THE TAMPA BAY REGION AND INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR 27N83W. THE
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO THE SW FROM 25N84W TO 23N91W. MOST OF THE
EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS
DIMINISHED...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN FROM 23N-27N
BETWEEN 81W-88W. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS SW TO THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO COAST
BETWEEN TAMPICO AND TUXPAN. LOOKING AHEAD...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NW GULF BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING IS
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA THAT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NE CARIBBEAN
WATERS AND TRACK W-NW TOWARDS THE MONA PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BERTHA CONTINUES TO MOVE W-NW ON THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N65W.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 10N76W CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF 67W WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND STABLE
CONDITIONS. FINALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N85W THAT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM
THE EAST PACIFIC REGION BETWEEN 80W-85W. THIS MOISTURE ALONG
WITH THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NE OF A LINE
FROM SW HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N74W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N84W.
OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AROUND 19N84W. OTHERWISE...TRADES NOT DISRUPTED BY THE
CIRCULATION OF BERTHA ARE FORECAST IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED GENERALLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 69W-
77W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO THE NW OF THE ISLAND DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA.
TO THE SOUTHEAST HOWEVER...BY MID-DAY SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS FORECAST TO TRACK THROUGH THE
MONA PASSAGE REGION AND SKIRT THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA. WHILE BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE ADDITIONAL IMPACTS EXPECTED
FROM BERTHA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W THAT IS PROVIDING OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 26N-30N W OF 75W. TO
THE NORTH...A 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG COASTAL GEORGIA NEAR
31N82W THAT IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS OFFSHORE N OF 30N W OF 78W. IN ADDITION...TO THE SE OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
25N723 CONTINUES TO DRIFT W-NW AND IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 71W-78W. THIS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WESTWARD MOVEMENT
THROUGH MONDAY LIKELY BRINGING HIGHER PROBABILITY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE DURATION OF
THE WEEKEND. FARTHER EAST..A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 31N53W THAT SUPPORTS A 1018 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
29N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS WEST FROM THE LOW TO 28N62W.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 50W-
56W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED
NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N41W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE
HIGH SE TO 33N30W THEN SOUTHEAST TO 24N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net