[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231011
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EST WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AND GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 03N24W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS
FROM THAT POINT TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 00N50W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 06N11W TO 03N24W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 27N93W.  AS THERE IS ALMOST NO PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRESENT...WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF ARE GENTLE BREEZE CONDITIONS
OR WEAKER.  NO DEEP CONVECTION NOR ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION THAT BROKE OUT MAINLY OVER THE EAST-FACING
SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO HAS DISSIPATED.
THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...THOUGH WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL REMAIN LIGHT.  THE
DIURNALLY FLUCTUATING CONVECTION OVER MEXICO WILL CONTINUE...BUT
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE GULF DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...EXTEND FROM
HISPANIOLA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF JAMAICA TO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS HAS HELPED INITIATE ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE ON TUESDAY...BUT HAS NOW SINCE
DISSIPATED. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH.  THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE AND
FORCING FOR ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER EASTERN CUBA...EASTERN
BAHAMAS...HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IN ADDITION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO OCCURRED DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS OVER NEAR THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND
COLOMBIA...DUE TO LAND BREEZES INTERACTING WITH SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE.  DEEP CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND NORTHERNMOST SOUTH AMERICA DURING AFTERNOONS AND
EARLY EVENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD CONTINUE.
THE WEAK NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS
PRODUCING ONLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE TRADEWINDS.  OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THE TRADEWINDS WILL REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY
BREEZIER CONDITIONS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...EXTEND FROM
HISPANIOLA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF JAMAICA.  THIS
HAS HELPED INITIATE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALSO EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  THE TROUGH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM AN OCCLUDING GALE-
FORCE LOW OF 993 MB PRESSURE CENTERED AT 40N59W...SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.  THE TROUGH ENTERS OUR AREA
AT 32N57W AND EXTENDS TO HISPANIOLA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE PRESENT WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH.  A LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE SOUTHERLIES
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOIST AIR POLEWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND PROMOTE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  A NEW COLD FRONT IS EMERGING OFF OF THE U.S.
ATLANTIC COAST CURRENTLY AND WILL QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD AND
MERGE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE TROUGH.  WINDS ON BOTH SIDES
OF THIS NEW FRONT MAY REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA
OF RESPONSIBILITY.

FARTHER EAST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST WITHIN OUR NORTHERN
BOUNDARY.  THE FEATURE IS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N41W TO
28N33W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT TO 32N18W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS ARE WEAK
ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.  THE FRONTAL FEATURE SHOULD
GRADUALLY FADE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA

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