[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230509
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EST WED APR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 03N23W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THAT
POINT AND CROSSES THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 02S40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 06N10W TO 03N20W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM NORTH OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N93W.  AS THERE IS ALMOST NO PRESSURE GRADIENT
PRESENT...WINDS THROUGHOUT THE GULF ARE GENTLE BREEZE CONDITIONS
OR WEAKER.  NO DEEP CONVECTION NOR ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN PRESENT ACROSS THE GULF TODAY.  HOWEVER...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION BROKE OUT MAINLY OVER THE EAST-FACING SLOPES
OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE...AS IS TYPICAL...LATER THIS MORNING.  THE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...THOUGH WINDS OVER THE GULF WILL REMAIN LIGHT.  THE
DIURNALLY FLUCTUATING CONVECTION OVER MEXICO WILL CONTINUE...BUT
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE GULF DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...EXTEND FROM
HISPANIOLA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO JAMAICA TO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS HAS HELPED INITIATE ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO
EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  THE TROUGH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN CUBA...EASTERN BAHAMAS...HISPANIOLA
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ALSO OCCURRED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OVER
PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA...COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND COLOMBIA...DUE
TO DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE.  THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE...AS IS
TYPICAL...LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH MORE OF THE SAME IS LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND NORTHERNMOST SOUTH AMERICA. THE WEAK NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING ONLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE BREEZE TRADEWINDS.  OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...THE
TRADEWINDS WILL REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY FASTER CONDITIONS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...EXTEND FROM
HISPANIOLA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO JAMAICA.  THIS HAS HELPED
INITIATE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALSO EXIST WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF THE TROUGH.  THE TROUGH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM AN
OCCLUDING GALE-FORCE LOW OF 997 MB PRESSURE CENTERED AT
38N61W...A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.  THE
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA AT 32N59W AND EXTENDS TO
23N65W.  AT THAT POINT...THE FEATURE BECOMES A TROUGH WHICH
EXTENDS TO HISPANIOLA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE PRESENT WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT/TROUGH.  A
LARGE SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE SOUTHERLIES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOIST AIR POLEWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND PROMOTE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN
AFTER THE FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A TROUGH.  A NEW COLD FRONT WILL
EMERGE OFF OF THE U.S. ATLANTIC COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND
QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD AND MERGE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE
ORIGINAL FRONT.  WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF THIS NEXT FRONT MAY
REACH STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS IN OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

FARTHER EAST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST WITHIN OUR NORTHERN
BOUNDARY.  THE FEATURE IS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N43W TO
29N33W...THEN TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT TO 32N20W.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT...THOUGH WINDS ARE WEAK
ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT.  THE FRONTAL FEATURE SHOULD
GRADUALLY FADE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA


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