[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N17W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N24W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N
BETWEEN 22W-28W WITH CLUSTERS FROM 3N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 33W-
45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE W GULF OF
MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 16/0900 UTC ENTERS THE
GULF FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN MIAMI AND KEY WEST
TO 24N84W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
NEAR 21N88W TO NW GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E
OF THE COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM W
OF THE ENTIRE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH
OVER OHIO. COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL
THEN DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH FRI THEN PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH FLORIDA AS A COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 20N86W ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO INLAND NEAR
15N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE
S OF 20N. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 71W-80W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HAITI
AND JAMAICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. SMOKE WILL PERSIST IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER SW HAITI. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE THE ISLAND ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY
INCREASING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE FAR NW ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 16/0900 UTC
NEAR 32N75W AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR MIAMI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
45/60 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS
AND CAICOS OVER THE W ATLC BETWEEN 63W-78W. AN UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N63W TO JUST N
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
21N-27N BETWEEN 54W-59W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NE OF BERMUDA.
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 31N72W TO CAY SAL BANK TONIGHT THEN
WILL DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NW WATERS
THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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