[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE S GULF S OF 22N
BETWEEN 92W-96W ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE
GULF. THESE GALE WINDS WILL BE DISCONTINUE BY 16/0600 UTC.
PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES TO 6N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N22W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 14W-
19W AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE E CONUS
AND THE W GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 16/0300
UTC ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN
MELBOURNE AND FORT MYERS THEN ALONG 24N84W TO THE N COAST OF THE
YUCATAN NEAR 21N89W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INLAND TO
17N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER FLORIDA
NEAR WEST PALM BEACH ACROSS THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS TO 24N81W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 24N TO OVER
CUBA E OF 83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT
N OF 22N. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE GULF IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER NW MISSISSIPPI.
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN RETURN N
THROUGH THE E AND CENTRAL GULF AS A WARM FRONT LATE WED THROUGH
FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 20N87W ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO INLAND NEAR 15N87W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST LINES. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-83W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
SMOKE WILL PERSIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS
TONIGHT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S HAITI/SW DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC S OF 19N W OF 70W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
AGAIN WED NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE THE
ISLAND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH WED THEN INCREASING SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS INTO THE FAR NW ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 16/0300 UTC
NEAR 32N78W AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA
NEAR MELBOURNE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N77W OVER
FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH CONTINUING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 28N.
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS OVER THE W
ATLC BETWEEN 63W-80W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N66W TO 22N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM
22N-28N BETWEEN 54W-60W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH NE OF BERMUDA.
COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM 31N72W TO CAY SAL BANK WED NIGHT THEN
WILL RETURN N ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THU NIGHT AND MOVE INTO
NW WATERS BY FRI NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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