[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141030
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS OF GALE FORCE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY 15/0000 UTC NORTH OF
THE FRONT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W SW
TO 02N14W TO 01S20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
CONTINUES FROM THERE TO 0N31W TO THE COAST OF N BRAZIL NEAR
02S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM
01S-06N BETWEEN 06W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
140 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 14W-20W AND WITHIN
140 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-01N BETWEEN 25W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC
WATERS EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS WELL AS
INTO THE GULF WATERS. SURFACE RIDGING IS PROVIDING TO THE BASIN
WITH E-SE WIND FLOW RANGING FROM 10-20 KT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MON MORNING. ALOFT...A RIDGE PROVIDES WITH
WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE
FROM THE E PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF.
MOISTURE ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM
THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN GULF SUPPORTS HAZE AND DENSE
FOG N OF 27N W OF 90W. MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN-CENTRAL GULF IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 23N W
OF 88W. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS IS
ADVECTING LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS CLEAR
SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER
THE NW BASIN MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT GALE TO STORM
FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF STARTING TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
E-NE WIND FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL AND SW N
ATLC WATERS INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE AND EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THIS PATCH OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING THUS ENHANCING SHOWERS THROUGH
TUE EVENING. ALOFT...WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
WHICH IS FAVORING FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 15 KT
DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 65W-79W S OF 17N WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 20-25 KT WITH
THE MAX OF 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. NO SURFACE
FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. BY TUE NIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE
GULF WILL EXTEND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED
BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS.
HOWEVER...A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...THE MONA PASSAGE AND EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE REMAINDER ISLAND TO ENHANCE
SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH TUE EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC WATERS
PROVIDING NE-E FLOW RANGING FROM 10-15 KT. THERE IS A WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 35N57W TO
23N62W. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY NE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 50W-
61W. NE OF THE BAHAMAS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS REMAIN
NEARBY THE LOCATION OF A FORMER SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 72W-75W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. THEN ON TUE NIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM
THE GULF INTO THE SW N ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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