[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140554
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS OF GALE FORCE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY 15/0000 UTC NORTH OF
THE FRONT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W SW
TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS CONTINUES FROM THERE TO 03S24W TO 02S33W TO THE COAST OF N
BRAZIL NEAR 03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04S-
02N BETWEEN 13W-22W AND FROM 07S-03N BETWEEN 25W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC
WATERS EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AS WELL AS
INTO THE GULF WATERS. SURFACE RIDGING IS PROVIDING TO THE BASIN
WITH E-SE WIND FLOW RANGING FROM 10-20 KT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MON MORNING. ALOFT...A RIDGE PROVIDES WITH
WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE
FROM THE E PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NW GULF. MOISTURE ALOFT ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN
INTO THE WESTERN GULF SUPPORTS HAZE AND DENSE FOG N OF 26N W OF
90W. MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE WESTERN-CENTRAL GULF
IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 23N-26N W OF 91W. E-SE WIND
FLOW OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS IS ADVECTING LINGERING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN MON AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDING BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF STARTING MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
E-NE WIND FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE SW N ATLC AND
CENTRAL ATLC WATERS INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT.
THIS PATCH OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO
HISPANIOLA BY MON MORNING THUS ENHANCING SHOWERS THROUGH TUE
EVENING. ALOFT...WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE WHICH IS
FAVORING FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS
THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-80W S
OF 17N WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 20-25 KT. NO SURFACE FEATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND IS BEING SUPPORTED BY
THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS.
HOWEVER...A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
HISPANIOLA BY MON MORNING TO ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE
ISLAND THROUGH TUE EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC
PROVIDING NE-E FLOW RANGING FROM 10-15 KT. THERE IS A WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 28N57W TO
24N60W. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY NE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 53W-
60W. NE OF THE BAHAMAS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS REMAIN
NEARBY THE LOCATION OF A FORMER SURFACE TROUGH FROM 24N-28N
BETWEEN 72W-75W. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 17W-26W. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON. THEN ON
TUE NIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE GULF INTO THE SW N ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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