[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131758
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
COASTS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF
GALE FORCE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY 15/0600 UTC NORTH OF THE
FRONT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
01N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
01N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 15W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 07W BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND
04W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 05N BETWEEN 17W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON
ON THE HEELS OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.
WHILE RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE PROVIDING
FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF...
INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN ACROSS
THE NW GULF. MOST PRECIPITATION HOWEVER IS OCCURRING FAR INLAND
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS NE TO NW ARKANSAS AND SW MISSOURI.
AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE FORECAST
THROUGH LATE MONDAY WHEN THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS. AS THE FRONT
SWEEPS EAST ACROSS THE GULF...ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG NORTHERLY
WIND IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
09N76W AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N76W THIS AFTERNOON THAT IS PROVIDING FOR
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR OVER A MAJORITY OF THE BASIN
WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM OVER
GUATEMALA AND BELIZE E-NE TO OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION.
OTHERWISE...AT THE SURFACE...ISOLATED AREAS OF SCATTERED
CLOUDINESS AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO ADVECT WESTWARD
WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 80W...AND ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN.
POSSIBLE CONVECTION ASIDE...THE PRIMARY IMPACT REMAINS STRONG
TRADES OCCURRING S OF 15N BETWEEN 70W-78W...WITH THE STRONGEST
OF THESE TRADES OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES REMAIN CLEAR AND CONDITIONS GENERALLY FAIR
ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOR
CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE SW NORTH ATLC IN THE VICINITY OF 29N76W THAT SUPPORTS A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 23N78W TO 27N74W. TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FOCUSED OVER 32N62W
THAT SUPPORTS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH FROM 24N61W TO 29N58W.
BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 54W-77W.
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N54W WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH CENTER W-SW TO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
SOUTHERN GEORGIA NEAR 31N83W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE EASTERN
ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE NE
CENTERED NEAR 34N23W. THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A
GRADUALLY WEAKENING 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N23W.
ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 16W-18W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net