[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131050 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

CORRECTED FOR ISSUANCE TIME

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
03N14W TO 0N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 0N19W TO 0S32W TO THE COAST OF N BRAZIL NEAR 02S43W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED FROM 01N-03N
BETWEEN 07W-13W AND FROM 04S-04N BETWEEN 19W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD RIDGE COVERING THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC WATERS
EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES AS WELL INTO THE GULF
WATERS. SURFACE RIDGING IS PROVIDING TO THE BASIN WITH E-SE WIND
FLOW RANGING FROM 10-20 KT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MON MORNING. ALOFT...WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES ACROSS
THE BASIN. THE FLOW ALOFT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE E
PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NW GULF TO SUPPORT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS N OF 27N W OF 92W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN GULF SUPPORTS HAZE AND DENSE FOG N
OF 27N W OF 90W. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS CLEAR
SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER
THE NW BASIN MON EVENING. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDING
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF STARTING MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH
E PACIFIC IS ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
PORTIONS OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. HIGH MOISTURE IS ALSO PRESENT
AT THE LOWER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER STATIONARY FRONT
THAT DISSIPATED EARLIER THIS MORNING. WITH NO LIFTING
MECHANISMS...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS
MAY JUST ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXCEPT FOR THE SW BASIN S OF
12N BETWEEN 73W-81W WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA...THE REMAINDER BASIN
IS BEING INFLUENCED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE THAT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE
ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-
79W WHERE WINDS RANGE FROM 20-25 KT. NO SURFACE FEATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
OTHERWISE...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER STATIONARY FRONT
WILL LINGER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
LIKELY ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAPPENING OVER SW HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS
SHOWERS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE SW N ATLC WATERS AS WELL AS
BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. EXCEPT FOR THE NORMAL AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC
PROVIDING NE-E FLOW RANGING FROM 10-15 KT. A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE SUPPORT A 1018 MB LOW NEAR 30N51W WITH AN ASSOCIATED
TROUGH EXTENDING TO 28N50W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
LATER TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS SW OF THE LOW ALONG
27N59W TO 23N60W. MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS NEARBY THE TROUGH N OF 24N BETWEEN 55W-66W AND N OF 25N
BETWEEN 68W-74W. OVER THE EASTERN BASIN...A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N21W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NE OF THE LOW CENTER N OF 28N BETWEEN 18W-
21W. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TUE
AFTERNOON. THEN ON TUE NIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE GULF
INTO THE SW N ATLC AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT DIPS INTO THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION IN THE CENTRAL ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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