[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042344
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N14W TO 3N17W WHERE IT THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N19W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W.
SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 14W-20W AND
FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF OVER E LOUISIANA NEAR
ATCHAFALAYA BAY ALONG 26N96W THEN INTO NE MEXICO N OF TAMPICO
NEAR 24N98W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS W OF 88W WITH A
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NE GULF FROM
SE ALABAMA TO 27N85W SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM 27N90W TO
OVER THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 23N96W TO 19N96W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE REACHING FROM THE FAR W FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOME STATIONARY
BEFORE LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT SAT AND SUN. A LOW PRES
WILL DEVELOP NEAR NE TEXAS AND SW LOUISIANA SUN A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP NEAR NE TEXAS/SW LOUISIANA SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS
GIVING THE CARIBBEAN A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING
FROM HISPANIOLA TO E PANAMA. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE RACING OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. A DISSIPATING FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO S OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N67W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 15N-20N E OF 70W TO ACROSS THE
VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 70W-82W INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE E
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
MOST OF THE ISLAND THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SW
HAITI. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND PREVIOUS SHEAR LINE WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEAR ZONAL NW FLOW ALOFT IS ACROSS THE W ATLC WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERING THE AREA AND ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR
29N68W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N34W AND
EXTENDS ALONG 23N45W TO 17N59W WHERE IT DISSIPATES OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF
THE FRONT N OF 20N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE E ATLC E OF THE FRONT AND ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR
MADEIRA ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net