[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041858 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI APR 04 2014

CORRECTION FOR THE HEADER TO MIATWDAT...AND TO UPDATE
THE INFORMATION ABOUT THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N15W TO 6N17W AND 2N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
2N18W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 21W...TO 5S29. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE
SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 14W AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH
OF 3N BETWEEN 41W AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
LOUISIANA AND THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS/COASTAL NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH
OF 22N.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUDS...KMZG AND
A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE WITH FOG...KGBK...KCRH...KEIR AND A
VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES WITH FOG...KSPR...KMDJ...KATP IS REPORTING
A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AREA. MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS
WITH THUNDER COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. MULTI-
LAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE GULF COAST STATES FROM
MISSISSIPPI TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM DESTIN WESTWARD. LOW
LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER BROOKSVILLE AND PARTS
OF THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS
FORT MYERS. A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE
NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE 6-HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT 30N92W 26N97W. EXPECT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER
THAN 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING
HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 20N60W...TO 17N66W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO 12N77W. THE TROUGH HAS BEEN SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 28N40W 21N50W AND 20N53W. A SHEAR
AXIS CONTINUES FROM 20N53W TO 18N60W 17N70W AND TO EASTERN
JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 83W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 04/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...ARE 0.71 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO...AND 0.81 IN ST.
THOMAS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. OTHER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 30N35W AND
25N41W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 25N41W 23N46W 18N56W 18N60W.

CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...LOW
CLOUD CEILING COVERS SANTO DOMINGO...LA ROMANA...AND PUNTA CANA.
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL START
ALONG A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH WILL SPEND THE NEXT 48 HOURS MOVING
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
COVER HISPANIOLA FOR 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL START ALONG A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN BECOMING
DIFFUSE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE TO A POSITION ALONG 20N60W-TO-THE PENINSULA DE
LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA AT 48 HOURS. NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER STARTS THE FORECAST PERIOD IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT
270 NM TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL GEORGIA.
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW STARTS ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN INVERTED
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS OR
SO. SOUTHERLY-TO-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA
AFTER THE INVERTED TROUGH DISAPPEARS.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW...ELSEWHERE AND AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION THAT ACCOMPANY THE SHEAR AXIS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 9 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 85W.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
MISSISSIPPI...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO 29N75W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 1024 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N67W...TO 27N61W AND TO 22N52W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 35N9W...TO 32N15W 24N25W 19N36W AND 19N49W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N37W TO 20N54W. EXPECT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 12 TO 17
FEET TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 52W. EXPECT
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE TO
THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 62W. EXPECT ALSO
SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 15 FEET TO
THE NORTH OF 28N WITHIN 240 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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