[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
04N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N15W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 02N BETWEEN 21W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED OVER THE GULF THIS
MORNING WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW GULF NORTHEAST
TO OVER THE MID-ATLC COAST. THE RIDGING IS PROVIDING WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS
AT THE SURFACE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS N
OF 25N. E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT ARE OCCURRING ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB
HIGH CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE
SW NORTH ATLC THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY
MAINTAINING THE E-SE WINDS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT
TRANSITIONS INTO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY AND STABLE OVER THE
ENTIRE BASIN THIS MORNING. A PORTION OF THE BROAD TROUGHING THAT
EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM 20N63W ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO
18N74W. THIS COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE ELSEWHERE...THE DRY AIR AND
STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ARE RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. E-NE TRADES
PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KT EXPECTED WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-79W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND ANALYZED FROM
20N63W TO 18N74W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN REGION BY LATE THURSDAY. ANY
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 33N46W SW TO A
BASE NEAR 23N70W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N45W SW TO 21N60W TO HISPANIOLA
NEAR 19N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 56W. ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER
ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 29N73W. FARTHER EAST ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCES THE EASTERN ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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