[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
05N14W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N14W TO 01N18W TO 01N23W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 02N BETWEEN 21W-
35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED OVER THE GULF THIS
EVENING ANCHORED OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE TO
OVER THE MID-ATLC COAST. THE RIDGING IS PROVIDING WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN MOSTLY STABLE CONDITIONS
AT THE SURFACE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS N
OF 25N. E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB
HIGH CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH REMAINS STATIONARY IN THE SW NORTH
ATLC THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY MAINTAINING
THE E-SE WINDS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY
FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT
TRANSITIONS INTO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN DRY AND STABLE OVER THE
ENTIRE BASIN THIS EVENING. A PORTION OF THE BROAD TROUGHING THAT
EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM 20N69W ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO
18N74W. THIS COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 17N-21N
BETWEEN 67W-75W. OTHERWISE ELSEWHERE...THE DRY AIR AND STABLE
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ARE RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. E-NE TRADES
PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 KT EXPECTED WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-79W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND ANALYZED FROM
20N69W TO 18N73W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 17N-21N
BETWEEN 67W-75W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY LATE THURSDAY. ANY LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 35N54W SW TO A
BASE NEAR 23N70W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N43W SW TO 24N56W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF
60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER ON THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE
SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N73W. FARTHER EAST ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE
INFLUENCES THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 27N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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