[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231139
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N32W 7N31W MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 27N26W 20N32W AND 13N38W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND
32W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 26W AND 36W.


AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 19N41W 10N40W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 13N TO 18N
BETWEEN 37W AND 41W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N46W 11N41W MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS BECOMING CUT-OFF NEAR 26N40W. CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 29N BETWEEN 36W AND 50W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 36W AND
50W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W TO 10N21W 7N30W AND 7N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
7N33W TO 7N39W AND 8N40W AND 9N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 12N TO THE EAST
OF 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING
THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SEPARATED INTO TWO
AREAS. ONE BIGGER SECTION OF THE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE U.S.A.
FROM GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD. A SEPARATE AREA OF A
TROUGH/CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS PARTS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
TEXAS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 31N80W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N80W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO
30N86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N86W
TO 29N90W...TO A 1003 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
26N94W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO

19N94W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 85W AND
87W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE AREA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS FROM PORT LAVACA NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
BORDER WITH LOUISIANA...IN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND IN
FLORIDA FROM PERRY WESTWARD...AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN NAPLES...BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST...IN FLORIDA.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 26N63W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 16N72W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF VENEZUELA. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...DUE TO AN EAST-TO-
WEST ORIENTED RIDGE THAT WILL ENCOMPASS THE AREA FOR THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A
NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH ACROSS THE
AREA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE 32N62W-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTER CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A SEPARATE AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND
ALSO COVERS PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 7N75W...THROUGH
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST...TO 12N86W IN
WESTERN NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN
TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 80W...REACHING THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM COSTA RICA TO NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 16N54W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N61W 10N58W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
14N TO 16N BETWEEN 63W AND 64W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N22W TO
28N33W TO 26N39W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N26W TO 29N34W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
29N34W TO 28N40W 26N45W 31N51W. A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 31N51W NORTHWESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN
24W AND 28W...AND FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 32N14W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N24W...TO 25N36W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS WITHIN 120 NM TO 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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