[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 230602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 23 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N28W 15N29W 10N30W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N18W TO 28N25W 24N29W 19N34W AND 12N40W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 23W AND 34W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17N40W 15N38W 12N36W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N41W 15N43W 9N43W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N18W TO 26N20W TO 24N29W 21N34W 16N37W
AND 11N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W TO 11N20W 10N23W 8N30W AND 7N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 7N33W TO 7N39W AND 8N41W...AND IT CONTINUES ALONG 10N
BETWEEN 48W AND 57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 13W AND 15W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING
THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SEPARATED INTO TWO
AREAS. ONE BIGGER SECTION OF THE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE U.S.A.
FROM GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD. A SEPARATE AREA OF A
TROUGH/CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS PARTS OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
TEXAS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 31N83W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N83W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO
28N90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO A 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 26N93W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO 23N93W AND 19N95W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 26N...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 26N82W
24N90W 22N98W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
OCCURRING IN MEXICO...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING IN
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG REMAINS
THERE IN MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W
26N66W...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N85W TO THE 1002 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 25N93W TO 18N95W. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOT
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 22N TO 28N TO THE WEST OF THE LOW
CENTER AND FRONT.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 69W AND 70W. THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN WARMING
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...WITH COMPARATIVELY WEAKER AND
DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...DUE TO AN EAST-TO-
WEST ORIENTED RIDGE THAT WILL ENCOMPASS THE AREA FOR THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A
NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA...FOLLOWED BY AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH ACROSS THE
AREA.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 25N66W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 16N72W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF VENEZUELA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE 32N62W-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTER CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A SEPARATE AREA OF MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND
ALSO COVERS PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 7N75W...THROUGH
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST...THROUGH
WESTERN NICARAGUA...ACROSS SOUTHERN HONDURAS...ACROSS AND BEYOND
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 5N TO 7N
BETWEEN 73W AND 75W...AND IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLY LINGERING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF 13N
TO THE WEST OF 77W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND IN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 12
HOUR FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 17N55W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N59W 17N61W 14N62W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 63W.
ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN
59W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N22W TO
28N33W TO 26N39W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N27W TO 29N32W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
29N32W TO 29N38W 26N45W 30N51W TO 32N53W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 32N53W NORTHWESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N25W 31N29W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM 22N TO 29N BETWEEN 34W AND
46W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 32N14W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N23W...TO 23N36W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS WITHIN 180 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 6-HOUR FORECAST OF 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 45W.
EXPECT ALSO THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N73W TO
28N80W. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N WITHIN 240 NM TO THE EAST
OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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