[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON SEP 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID AT 16/1800 UTC IS NEAR
23.7N 98.6W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 43 NM TO THE WEST
OF LA PESCA IN MEXICO. INGRID IS MOVING WESTWARD 7 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 998 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
50 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT INGRID
THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCMAT5. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN THE COAST/COASTAL WATERS
OF MEXICO AND 100W...AND FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND COASTAL WATERS...AND INTERIOR SECTIONS...OF MEXICO AND
TEXAS FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 96W AND 101W.

HUMBERTO HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN. THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO AT 16/1500 UTC IS NEAR 27.2N 43.2W.
HUMBERTO IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 7 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. PLEASE READ
THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT HUMBERTO THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4...
AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN
40W AND 43W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N21W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N23W...TO 11N23W. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 16W AND 17W...AND WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 17N17W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN
90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N18W 14N24W 12N30W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR
16N17W...THROUGH THE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
14N23W...TO 12N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N34W TO 11N46W
TO 12N52W AND 11N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 44W AND 55W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 9W AND
15W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 22W AND 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE U.S.A. COASTAL WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS
FLORIDA...INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N78W TO
30N82W IN FLORIDA...TO A 25N85W EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 23N90W. THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WAS BEING SUPPORTED BY THE TROUGH HAS DISSIPATED.CONSISTS
OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 31N75W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM CUBA TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS BETWEEN 73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 86W IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 70W...AND TO THE NORTH OF
30N TO THE WEST OF 63W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 16/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...
IS 0.30 IN BERMUDA.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS KVBS...KGUL...KVAF...AND KMYT. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE OBSERVED FROM THE
MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER
WITH MEXICO. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN AND AROUND THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA. BROKEN LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
AREA OF LAKE PONTCHARTAIN. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN
BILOXI MISSISSIPPI AND IN MOBILE ALABAMA. BROKEN LOW AND HIGH
CLOUDS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM VALPARAISO WESTWARD.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE OBSERVED IN THE
FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA FROM NAPLES TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. LIGHT
RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL
STORM INGRID ALONG THE MEXICO COAST NEAR LA PESCA MEXICO.

HISPANIOLA AND PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N70W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS RELATED TO THE CENTER COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF A 24N71W 20N70W 17N71W 13N73W TROUGH. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 64W AND
68W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THIS AREA HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EARLIER AREA OF PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN ROUGHLY FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W ABOUT
24 HOURS AGO. THAT AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST STEADILY DURING THAT TIME PERIOD FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG ALONG THE VENEZUELA COAST BETWEEN 68W AND LA PENINSULA
DE PARAGUANA OF VENEZUELA. SCATTERED STRONG IS IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 16/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN...IS 1.25 IN TRINIDAD.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL COVER THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW...FROM THE PERIPHERY OF A 17N62W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE 17N62W ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY IS FORECAST TO END UP
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE
CURRENT TROUGH THAT ENCOMPASSES HISPANIOLA EVENTUALLY WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD BY THE END OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS...IN ORDER TO BE IN
THE MONA PASSAGE. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME
DURING THE SECOND 24 HOUR TIME PERIOD. IT WILL PASS ON TOP OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SOUTHWESTWARD.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE WEST OF 80W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 86W AND
89W COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL
WATERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND HONDURAS...AND
FROM 20N TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. OTHER
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE
WEST OF 80W. THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE FIRST
48 HOURS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
16/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.70 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN
HONDURAS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 9N80W
IN PANAMA...BEYOND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...TO THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF GUATEMALA NEAR 14N91W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE 15N83W 13N78W 12N76W.
THIS PRECIPITATION COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS FROM COLOMBIA
TO NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGHS SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 12N
TO 15N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N65W 22N68W. THIS TROUGH IS PART
OF THE REMNANT OF THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT WAS
NEAR 24N63W ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO. UPPER LEVEL WIND SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF THIS FEATURE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN
65W AND 71W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 31N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N45W.
THIS CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH ARE IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST
OF THE RE-INTENSIFIED TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 28N28W
BEYOND 32N29W.

A FAR-EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N10W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...
TO 20N22W...TO THE WESTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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