[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161208 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION ...AMD
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 16 2013

AMENDED IN ORDER TO INCLUDE 16/1200 UTC INFORMATION FOR
TROPICAL STORM INGRID

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
INGRID HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM INGRID IS NEAR 23.8N 97.8W AT 16/1200 UTC...
MAKING LANDFALL NEAR LA PESCA IN MEXICO. INGRID IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD 9 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
NEAR 991 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. THE CENTER OF INGRID SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS MEXICO TODAY. INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15
INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. CURRENTLY...NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 95W-96W.
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN
92W-98W. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT INGRID THAT ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT5...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5.

THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO IS LOCATED NEAR
26.6N 42.6W AT 16/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
AZORES ISLANDS AND IS MOVING NW AT 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED
LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CURRENTLY...A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS NE OF THE
LOW CENTER FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 37W-42W...COINCIDING WITH AN
AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1011 MB LOW IS STARTING TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IT AXIS EXTENDS FROM 19N21W
TO THE LOW NEAR 14N22W TO 11N23W AND IS MOVING W NEAR 5 KNOTS.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW THIS WAVE IS MOSTLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. METEOSAT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW THIS WAVE CONTINUES ENGULFED BY N-NW SAHARAN DRY
AIR WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 19W-26W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 16N16W
TO 09N28W TO 09N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N35W TO 09N47W TO
07N58W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
ALREADY DISCUSSED...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-
19N E OF 20W...FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 21W-29W AS WELL AS FROM 08N-
11N BETWEEN 35W-39W. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 215 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 49W-56W AND WITHIN 100 NM N
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 43W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE WEST CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE WESTERN GULF SUPPORTING
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM INGRID. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALSO SUPPORTS THIS CONVECTION. SEE THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE BASE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
SE GULF JUST E OF THE UPPER-RIDGE THAT COVERS THE REMAINDER GULF
W OF 88W. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT OVER AN AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 84W AND IN
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID IS
MAKING LANDFALL NEAR LA PESCA IN MEXICO. EXPECT TRAILING
CONVECTION FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE TO LINGER OVER THE W-SW
GULF FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE IS DEPICTED OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE GENERATED BY THE RIDGE-TROUGH
PATTERN OVER THE GULF COINCIDES WITH THE REGION OF HIGH MOISTURE
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 13N W OF 78W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN BASIN S
OF 13N BETWEEN 75W-84W. CONVECTION IN THIS AREA OF THE BASIN IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IS BEING SUPPORTED BY
MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CURRENTLY OVER THIS REGION. A CUT-OFF
UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OVER NE HISPANIOLA SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN REGION OF THE ISLAND E OF 70W AND IN THE
MONA PASSAGE. ANOTHER ZONE OF HIGH MOISTURE THIS MORNING IS IN
THE SE BASIN COINCIDING WITH A REGION OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 16N BETWEEN 62W-68W.
EXPECT...THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WHERE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW MOSTLY A DRY ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING. A CUT-OFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED IN THE NE ISLAND THUS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF
70W AND IN THE MONA PASSAGE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO DISSIPATE...AND FOR CONVECTION TO FORM
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WED MORNING.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BESIDES THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO AND THE TROPICAL WAVE
DISCUSSED IN THE RESPECTIVE SECTIONS ABOVE...AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SE GULF SUPPORTS
A REGION OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 28N-31N
BETWEEN 70W-77W. UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS TROUGH AND A
WEAK RIDGE FORMING INTO THE W CARIBBEAN SEA IS SUPPORTING
SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS S OF 27N W OF 76W. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FORMER LOW EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM
26N65W TO 21N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 125 NM W
OF THE AXIS FROM 24N-26N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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