[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 161136
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 16 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
INGRID...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO IS LOCATED ABOUT 1075 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS
AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHERE A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net