[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 160514
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 16 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
INGRID...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO IS LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES ISLANDS AND IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS AS IT TURNS
NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.  ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHERE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD FORM BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS LOW...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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