[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 141154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM INGRID IS CENTERED NEAR 20.3N 94.5W AT 14/1200
UTC OR ABOUT 110 NM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 165 NM ESE
OF TUXPAN MEXICO MOVING NNE AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 91W-97W...WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 83W-
98W. WHILE INGRID IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM AND POSSIBLY
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IMPACTING THE SW GULF WATERS AND COASTAL
MEXICO...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
EASTERN MEXICO WHICH IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUD SLIDES. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 25.0N 34.0W AT 14/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 780 NM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT 8
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME...
HOWEVER LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN
26W-38W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N15W TO 19N14W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS GENERALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH HOWEVER GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH SURFACE TO 700 MB TROUGHING WITH A MID-LEVEL
RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N15W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-16N BETWEEN 14W-21W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N17W TO
06N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N27W TO 05N32W TO 09N48W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE EMERGING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 21W-
32W...AND FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 44W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 24N102W THAT IS PROVIDING
MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT W OF A LINE FROM COASTAL TEXAS NEAR 28N97W TO OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS DIRECTLY ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS AND MEXICO COAST S OF
27N W OF 96W...WHICH LEADS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID CENTERED IN THE WESTERN SW
GULF WATERS. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 25N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 25N W OF 84W...INCLUDING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CHANNEL THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN PLACE N OF 25N DUE PRIMARILY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...HOWEVER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE SE
CONUS FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA WESTWARD TO EASTERN TEXAS THAT IS
GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION. WITH TROPICAL STORM INGRID
REMAINING OVER THE SW GULF WATERS THROUGH MONDAY...OUTSIDE OF
INGRID'S INFLUENCE...GENERALLY E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE GULF IN THE RANGE OF 10-20 KT E OF 90W...AND 15-25 KT
W OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
14N73W AND IS PROVIDING NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MUCH OF THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ADVECTING
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEST OF A LINE FROM 22N81W TO 15N84W...THAT
INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...YUCATAN PENINSULA...
BELIZE...WESTERN HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. FARTHER SOUTH...
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AMERICA...THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN PANAMA THROUGH COSTA RICA TO
GUATEMALA AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS THIS MORNING. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND IS GENERATING
ELEVATED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 11N-22N BETWEEN 68W-
76W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION. FINALLY...OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES AND IS
ADVECTING SCATTERED MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...HOWEVER
BENEATH THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ARE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
AND GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WITH ONLY POSSIBLE PASSING ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

HISPANIOLA...
MOST EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAINING THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE DUE TO LIFTING
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF THE
ISLAND NEAR 14N73W THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY MONDAY. AS A RESULT...CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH STRONGER CONVECTION ANTICIPATED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS AND THIS TROUGHING DIPS SOUTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC W OF 70W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORTED BY THE
TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND IS ANALYZED WESTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
FRONT...HOWEVER REMAIN N OF 32N. A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING N OF 29N BETWEEN 71W-80W AS THE FRONT DRIFTS SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 27N
BETWEEN 65W AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THIS IS KEEPING SKIES
AND CONDITIONS FAIR AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
HOWEVER THAT MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N73W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 70W-77W. FARTHER
EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N57W THAT IS
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 27N-36N BETWEEN 48W-
61W. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...A 1009 MB SURFACE
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N58W THAT SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 12N-23N BETWEEN 52W-61W. FINALLY...ASIDE FROM THE
AREA IMPACTED BY TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO...SURFACE RIDGING
CONTROLS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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