[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 140549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM INGRID IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 95.2W AT 14/0600
UTC OR ABOUT 65 NM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 150 NM SE OF
TUXPAN MEXICO MOVING NNE AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 92W-96W...WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 84W-
98W. WHILE INGRID IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM AND POSSIBLY
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IMPACTING THE SW GULF WATERS AND COASTAL
MEXICO...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF
EASTERN MEXICO WHICH IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING AND
MUD SLIDES. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 24.8N 33.0W AT 14/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 730 NM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT 8
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME...
HOWEVER LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN
27W-37W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N14W TO 18N13W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS GENERALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH HOWEVER GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH SURFACE TO 700 MB TROUGHING WITH A MID-LEVEL
RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N14W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 13W-20W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
10N19W TO 06N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 06N25W TO 08N38W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE EMERGING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 11N19W TO 07N25W TO 07N31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 24N101W THAT IS PROVIDING
MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT W OF A LINE FROM COASTAL TEXAS NEAR 29N96W TO OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W. THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS DIRECTLY ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TEXAS AND MEXICO COAST S OF
27N W OF 96W...WHICH LEAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE SURFACE CIRCULATION
OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID CENTERED IN THE WESTERN SW GULF WATERS.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF S OF 25N WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 15N W OF 84W...INCLUDING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CHANNEL THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN PLACE N OF 25N DUE PRIMARILY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...HOWEVER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE SE
CONUS FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA WESTWARD TO NORTH TEXAS THAT IS
GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG THE LOUISIANA
COAST. WITH TROPICAL STORM INGRID REMAINING OVER THE SW GULF
WATERS THROUGH MONDAY...OUTSIDE OF INGRID'S INFLUENCE...
GENERALLY E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF IN
THE RANGE OF 10-20 KT E OF 90W...AND 15-25 KT W OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR
14N73W AND IS PROVIDING NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MUCH OF THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ADVECTING
MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN MEXICO WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEST OF A LINE FROM 22N82W TO 15N87W...THAT
INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...YUCATAN PENINSULA...
BELIZE...WESTERN HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR. FARTHER SOUTH...
ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AMERICA...THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN PANAMA THROUGH COSTA RICA TO
GUATEMALA AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS THIS EVENING. AS MENTIONED BEFORE...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND IS GENERATING
ELEVATED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 11N-21N BETWEEN 67W-
75W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH
CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION. FINALLY...OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES AND IS
ADVECTING SCATTERED MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...HOWEVER
BENEATH THIS ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ARE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
AND GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WITH ONLY POSSIBLE PASSING ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE DUE TO LIFTING DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF THE ISLAND NEAR 14N73W THAT IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS AND THIS TROUGHING DIPS SOUTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC W OF 70W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORTED BY THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING AND
IS ANALYZED WESTWARD ACROSS THE SE CONUS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
FRONT...HOWEVER REMAIN N OF 32N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS ALONG 28N BETWEEN 66W AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THIS
IS KEEPING SKIES AND CONDITIONS FAIR AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATE HOWEVER THAT MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR 14N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN
70W-77W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
26N58W THAT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 25N-
35N BETWEEN 50W-61W. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...A
1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N57W THAT SUPPORTS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 52W-58W.
FINALLY...ASIDE FROM THE AREA IMPACTED BY TROPICAL STORM
HUMBERTO...SURFACE RIDGING CONTROLS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED NW OF THE
AZORES NEAR 42N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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