[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091151
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1122 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO
AT 09/0900 UTC. TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IS CENTERED NEAR 13.4N
23.3W AT 09/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 92 NM S OF PRAIA CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 23W-
27W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-
17N BETWEEN 22W-32W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 23N40W
THROUGH A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 18N38W TO 16N37W. THE WAVE/LOW HAS
BEEN MOVING NW 5-10 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE N OF THE
LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS BEING
DRAWN NW AWAY FROM THE WAVE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 17N41W TO 22N45W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING
FROM 22N89W TO 15N89W. WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO AS
DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO OVER MAURITANIA. THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ HAVE BEEN COMPLETELY DISRUPTED BY THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-20N E OF 18W TO THE COAST
OF MAURITANIA AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER W TEXAS EXTENDING A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE W GULF BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE TO 23N95W
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS TO
OVER NE MEXICO. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS W ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO 27N87W. THIS IS INDUCING
UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO S/CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE
COVERING ALL BUT THE NE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N TO INLAND
OVER MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF FROM 20N-
28N W OF 90W TO THE COAST OF W MEXICO AND SE TEXAS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM 24N FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR
80W TO 90W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF WITH A WEAK
1016 MB HIGH OVER SE ALABAMA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE N GULF COAST STATES THROUGH FRI. A NEW TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF WATERS BY WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 16N
W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN
THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-75W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N
OF HISPANIOLA IS BEGINNING TO PULL NE AWAY FROM THE HISPANIOLA.
HOWEVER THE UPPER RIDGE IS CONTINUING TO PROVIDE A DIFFLUENT
ATMOSPHERE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
HISPANIOLA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 8N76W
ALONG PANAMA AND COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
PANAMA TO SE NICARAGUA S OF 12N. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOTTING THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 70W-79W. TRADE WINDS ARE
BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN THROUGH
EARLY WED THEN DIMINISH INTO FRI.

HISPANIOLA...
SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS PASSING
FROM S TO N. THE NATIONAL OFFICE OF METEOROLOGY IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE WEATHER ALERTS. LINGERING MOISTURE
AND THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TUE WHEN AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE
E CARIBBEAN. TUE THROUGH FRI EXPECT THE DAILY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC INTO THE REGION NEAR
32N75W TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR WEST PALM BEACH THEN INTO
THE NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT REMAINS
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 27N75W TO 32N70W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 27N75W ACROSS THE
N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N65W TO A 1009
MB LOW...REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...NEAR 25N68W TO N OF HISPANIOLA
NEAR 21N71W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 25N64W TO BEYOND 32N53W WHICH PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE TROUGH. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. THE REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE
AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO LIFT NE OF THE AREA TUE. A
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW/NR


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