[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS CENTERED NEAR 13.3N 22.3W AT 09/0600
UTC OR ABOUT 120 NM SE OF PRAIA CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT
10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 14N22W
TO 12N25W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 21W-27W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 21N38W
THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 17N38W TO 13N38W. THE WAVE/LOW HAS
MOVED NW 5-10 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE N OF THE LOW IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS BEING DRAWN NW
AWAY FROM THE WAVE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
30/45 NM OF LINE FROM 17N39W TO 20N42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING
FROM 22N88W TO 14N88W. WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING W-NW NEAR 15 KT FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO AS
DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ANY DEEP
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE COAST OF
MAURITANIA THEN RESUMES W OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE NEAR
11N24W AND CONTINUES ALONG 13N31W TO 16N35W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 13N42W AND CONTINUES INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 6N55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 28W-36W AND FROM 16N-
19N BETWEEN 18W-23W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 15W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS OVER W TEXAS EXTENDING A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
INTO THE W GULF NEAR BROWNSVILLE TO 23N94W. THE UPPER TROUGH IN
THE W ATLC EXTENDS W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SE LOUISIANA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN
60 NM ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA FROM TAMPA TO THE FLORIDA
KEYS. THE UPPER TROUGHS ARE INDUCING UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN
EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS
BORDER. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE
COVERING ALL BUT THE NE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF 25N
BETWEEN 88W-96W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF WITH A
WEAK 1016 MB HIGH OVER SE ALABAMA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE N GULF COAST STATES THROUGH FRI. A NEW TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW GULF WATERS BY WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN N OF 16N
W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER CUBA...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA AND CONTINUES TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 14N
BETWEEN 67W-73W INCLUDING THE PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 8N76W ALONG PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA NEAR 10N83W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W-76W.
TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E
CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH EARLY WED THEN DIMINISH INTO FRI.

HISPANIOLA...
THE ISLAND REMAINS UNDER CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE NATIONAL OFFICE OF
METEOROLOGY IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAINTAINS A WEATHER ALERT
AGAINST OVERFLOWING RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...AND LANDSLIDES
TO RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING AREAS TO THE PROVINCES OF HATO MAYOR
AND MONTE PLATA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED THE SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE IN THE W ATLC TO
JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY TUE WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW ATLC INTO THE REGION NEAR
32N75W ALONG 28N78W THEN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF
OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT REMAINS N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM OVER S FLORIDA NEAR BOCA RATON ACROSS
THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS ALONG 27N76W TO 31N72W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA ALONG 30N66W TO A 1008 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF
GABRIELLE...NEAR 26N68W TO N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N71W. THIS
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE MONA PASSAGE ALONG
25N62W TO BEYOND 32N53W WHICH PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W ALONG
25N64W TO 32N57W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. THE
REMNANT LOW OF GABRIELLE AND SURFACE TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO LIFT
NE OF THE AREA TUE. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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