[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 071146
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT...LOCATED WELL INLAND WEST OF TAMPICO
MEXICO.

SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED
THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER... THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE WHILE IT MOVES
NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER WESTERN AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ON SUNDAY...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN
EASTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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