[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 070531
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 7 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT...LOCATED WELL INLAND WEST OF TAMPICO
MEXICO.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
BERMUDA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT IN A DAY OR SO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

A DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...IS LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED
MILES NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
REDEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME BUT THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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