[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sun Sep 1 12:54:28 CDT 2013


AXNT20 KNHC 011754
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N61W TO A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
15N61W TO 18N58W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN BROAD SURFACE TO 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 55W-65W WITH A
RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM STRETCHING FROM 16N57W TO 15N63W.
THIS AREA COINCIDES WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION AT THIS TIME
AS SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-
18N BETWEEN 53W-66W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N22W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 17N22W
TO 21N21W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS
STRONGEST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WAVE WITH ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OCCURRING WELL WEST OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 14N-17N
BETWEEN 23W-26W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N47W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 11N47W
TO 17N46W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. EXAMINING MULTI-DAY SATELLITE
IMAGERY...THIS WAVE EMERGED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST APPROXIMATELY
4 DAYS AGO AND REMAINED A RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDE PIECE OF
ENERGY. ONLY RECENTLY...WITHIN THE LAST 36 TO 48 HOURS...HAS
THIS ENERGY AMPLIFIED AND DEVELOPED DISORGANIZED AREAS OF
CONVECTION. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-15N
BETWEEN 41W-51W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N88W TO 19N87W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK PRESENCE IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS AREAS OF WEAK RELATIVE
VORTICITY STRETCH FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION NORTHWARD TO OVER
PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 11N-21N BETWEEN 86W-92W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N19W TO 12N23W TO 08N35W TO
11N47W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N
BETWEEN 08W-26W...AND FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 31W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTHWESTWARD
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR
23N86W. WHILE NOT IN FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT AREA AT
THIS TIME...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS HOWEVER GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W TO 26N92W
FOCUSED PRIMARILY EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 31N86W
TO 28N90W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION
WESTWARD ALONG 26N TO 92W THEN SW TO A 1014 MB HIGH CENTERED
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N99W. E-SE WINDS PREVAIL SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N86W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN THAT IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 14N W OF 80W. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WEST ALONG 88W IS ALSO ADDING AN ELEMENT OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AIDING IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FARTHER SOUTH...THE
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 09N/10N FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA WESTWARD TO COSTA RICA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OCCURRING S OF 13N BETWEEN 76W-84W. FINALLY...A TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG 61W IMPACTING THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS LOCATED BETWEEN 57W-67W THAT ALONG WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AXIS IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 54W-67W. THE
STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING PRIMARILY ACROSS AND
DIRECTLY EAST OF MARTINIQUE FROM 15N61W TO 15N57W.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAIR WITH ONLY SCATTERED
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS NEAR 19N70W THAT CONTINUES TO DRIFT
WESTWARD. WITH PEAK HEATING AND INSTABILITY YET TO OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN ANY SURFACE
BASED OR ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT INITIATES THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W
IS FORECAST TO REACH HISPANIOLA BY LATE TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT
INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD
BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N79W TO
22N87W AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 26N71W.
WHILE WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC
ANCHORED BY AS 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N66W...THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE STRONG ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO
GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 23N-
29N BETWEEN 71W-80W. TO THE NE OF THE HIGH...A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE
VICINITY OF 33N63W THAT SUPPORTS A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
33N60W WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO 29N63W. A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE COLD FRONT NEAR
29N62W TO 27N64W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
OCCURRING FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 60W-64W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EAST
OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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