[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011037
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0952 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE IS EAST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 19N20W TO THE
LOW NEAR 16N20W TO 11N20W AND IS MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. METEOSAT
SAL TRACKING IMAGERY SHOW SOME DRY AIR WITHIN THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT N OF 16N AND E OF ITS AXIS WHICH IS LIMITING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WEST OF
THE LOW CENTER FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 21W-25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW EXTENDS AN AXIS
FROM 17N58W TO THE LOW NEAR 14N58W TO 10N58W AND MOVES W NEAR 10
KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT THE WAVE CONTINUES
WITHIN A HIGH MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH MAXIMUM VALUES NOW
EXTENDING EAST AND WEST OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION COINCIDES WITH THE AREAS OF MOISTURE MAXIMA AND IS
LOCATED FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 51W-58W AS WELL AS FROM 14N-17N
BETWEEN 58W-65W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING ALONG 22N85W TO 11N86W AND MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW A DECREASE IN MOISTURE WITHIN
THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. THE WAVE IS NOW COUPLED TO A WEAK RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE WESTERN BASIN IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND ITS
CONVECTION HAS REDUCED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
16N16W TO 10N30W 10N40W 12N51W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-11N E OF 37W AS WELL AS FROM 04N-
15N BETWEEN 40W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS
MOST OF THE BASIN WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND IN THE RANGE OF 5-10
KT DOMINATES IN THE SURFACE. IN THE SE GULF...AN UPPER LEVEL
ELONGATED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS IS SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-27N E OF 83W. OTHERWISE...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 21N92W TO 15N96W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM A WEAK RIDGE W OF 95W AND THE LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY TODAY PASSING OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MON THROUGH WED. A WEAK TROUGH WILL
PASS E ACROSS THE N CENTRAL WATERS ON TUE AND THROUGH THE NE
WATERS ON WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS
EXTENDING ALONG 22N85W TO 11N86W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOW A DECREASE IN MOISTURE WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT.
THE WAVE IS NOW COUPLED TO A WEAK RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN
BASIN IN THE UPPER LEVELS AND ITS CONVECTION HAS REDUCED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN ELONGATED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND THE WEAK RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS E OF THE WAVE
FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 74W-83W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN
THE SOUTHERN BASIN S OF 13N E OF 78W ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH. SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUES IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E
OF 70W BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE
AFFECTING THE EASTERN BASIN FROM 14N-17N E OF 66W. THE TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ON SUN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE/LOW
WILL PASS THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND MON. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED.

HISPANIOLA...
RAINSHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUES IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E OF
70W BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE
ISLAND. THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT W THROUGH EARLY WED. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL ENTER THE CARIBBEAN SUN AND PASS OVER THE ISLAND TUE
AND WED. THEREFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
IN THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT WATERS FROM 22N-29N W OF 72W. THIS
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY COINCIDES WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM A LOW CENTERED NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND A RIDGE
TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 26N68W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS N OF 30N
W OF 30W SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A 1015 MB
LOW NEAR 33N60W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N61W TO 28N66W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TO 27N68W. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS ALONG 29N61W TO 22N63W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 62W-66W AS WELL AS WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 26N-29N. OTHERWISE...BESIDES
THE TROPICAL WAVES ALREADY DISCUSSED...SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY
STABLE AIR DOMINATES THE REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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