[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N76W ALONG 15N77W
TO 12N77W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH
IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-
16N BETWEEN THE WAVE AND 81W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA
WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES ALONG 9N21W
10N30W 8N39W TO 10N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 14W-17W...FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
17W-23W...AND FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 21W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA ANCHORED IN THE SW GULF
NEAR 21N95W AND EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC AND W CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER TEXAS AHEAD OF
A FRONT THAT IS WELL INLAND WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NW GULF
N OF 25N W OF 93W. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH
OVER SOUTH CAROLINA EXTENDS OVER THE GULF THROUGH PANAMA CITY
FLORIDA TO A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
TUXPAN. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE
TEXAS COAST THU EVENING REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO SE TEXAS
EARLY FRI THEN FROM THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE W GULF BY
LATE FRI AND FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO SAT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 76W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS S
ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS
THROUGH THE W ATLC TO OVER THE E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 17N TO OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE BETWEEN 67W-71W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF 64W ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DOT THE CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 64W-87W DUE TO EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS. CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT
THROUGH THU. THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
ENTER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT BEFORE IT STALLS LATE SAT INTO SUN.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE
E PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO THE COLD FRONT.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION
TO A SHEAR LINE TODAY THEN LINGER INTO THU NIGHT BEFORE
DISSIPATING AS THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN TODAY AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA SAT AND SUN.
THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME CUT OFF
IN THE CARIBBEAN THU AND DRIFT W THROUGH MID WEEK.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN FREQUENCY AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W
ATLC TO 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC
EXTENDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N56W ALONG 25N62W TO OVER THE
E TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 26N58W TO
20N60W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60
NM OF LINE FROM 24N58W TO 30N55W. THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 19N60W ALONG 15N59W TO 9N58W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN
53W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH AND W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED BY
1029 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N28W. COLD FRONT WILL
TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE TODAY THEN LINGER INTO THU NIGHT
BEFORE DISSIPATING. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
THE SE CONUS LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SAT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N74W TO SE FLORIDA BY SAT AND FROM NEAR
31N68W TO E CUBA BY LATE SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND
THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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