[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301043
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N74W TO 10N74W AND DRIFTING WEST AT ABOUT 10
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOSTLY MODERATE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. STRONG WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION
OF THE BASIN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
GENERATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE S OF HISPANIOLA AND
A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED IN THE SW GULF IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 70W-80W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 09N13W AND CONTINUES TO 07N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 08N30W TO 07N45W 06N55W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 11W-
22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 09N-18N
BETWEEN 18W-34W AND FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 36W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN GEORGIA NEAR 33N82W.
SURFACE RIDGING IS BEING REINFORCED BY A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE SW GULF IN THE UPPER LEVELS. SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW VERY DRY
AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WHICH IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS BEING ANALYZED FROM 21N93W TO
15N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S
OF 21N BETWEEN 92W-96W. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT REACHING THE
TEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N74W TO 10N74W. THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MOSTLY MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS DEPICTED ON THE
SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. STRONG WESTERLY-
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IN THIS REGION OF THE BASIN IS
HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT GENERATED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE S OF HISPANIOLA AND A BROAD RIDGE
CENTERED IN THE SW GULF IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 13N-
16N BETWEEN 70W-80W. RAINSHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO AFFECTING
HISPANIOLA...NORTHEASTERN ADJACENT WATERS WITHIN 170 NM OFF THE
COASTLINE...THE MONA PASSAGE AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THESE
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT JUST
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE AXIS OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS ALREADY GENERATING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...SUBSIDENCE OF DRY AIR
SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN WILL MOVE
THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AMERICA ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL ENTER THE EASTERN BASIN TODAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH BASE JUST S OF THE ISLAND SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT IN THE SW NORTH ATLC WHICH TAIL REACHES ADJACENT
WATERS OF NE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 66W-70W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO INLAND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHILE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING HAITI. RAINSHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLAND THROUGH VERY EARLY ON THURSDAY
BEING SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC
PATTERNS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE N WEST ATLC SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG 30N60W TO 24N63W TO 19N68W. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM 30N57W TO 27N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 53W-56W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N58W TO 08N57W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-10N BETWEEN 56W-
61W...FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 54W-60W AND FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 52W-
59W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
THAT IS ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1028 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 34N26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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